China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.4 below forecasts (50.3) in January.China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.4 below forecasts (50.3) in January

China NBS Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.3, below expectations (50) in January.China NBS Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.3, below expectations (50) in January

Markets Weekly Outlook – NFP forecast, Fed's New Direction, RBA Rate Hike Risk, BoE/ECB Pause and Big Tech Earnings.The starting point though has to be the stark reversal in commodity markets on Thursday and Friday which sent markets into a tailspin. At the time of writing, spot silver is down around 27% on the day, on track for their biggest daily drop on record, based on LSEG data available through 1982.

Fed's Bowman still supports rate cuts despite backing pause at recent meeting.U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said on Friday she still feels interest rates should fall, but voted to hold monetary policy steady this week ​only to gather more data before the next reduction in borrowing costs.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bulls Extend Rally Above Key Support.Natural gas surged to new highs, confirming bullish momentum as buyers defended key support levels and positioned for further upside following a strong breakout session.

The Weekly Bottom Line: Kevin Warsh Nominated as Next Fed Chair.It was a busy week of updates on the Canadian economy, on top of an announcement of expanded support for modest income Canadians and a widely expected rate hold from the Bank of Canada. Yet, after all the news, Canadian bond yields are roughly in line with last Friday's close.

More Signs of Stability Expected in Canadian and U.S. Job Market.Next Friday, we expect Canada's January employment report to show a tick-down in the unemployment rate to 6.7%, after an increase to 6.8% in December that partially reversed an unusually large 0.5 percentage point decline over the prior two months. Employment is expected to have declined by 10,000 in January – after the outsized 189,000 increase between September and December 2025.

Will RBA Opt for a Rapid Policy Reversal?.Core inflation in Australia rose to 3.4% y/y, exceeding both forecasts and the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2–3% target range, increasing pressure on the central bank to act.

The Fed Chair Has Been Picked: Who is Kevin Warsh?.Trump loves a good surprise. Just after announcing he would provide the decision next week, turns out he did so in the early morning through a Truth Social Post.

US Dollar Price Action Setups into NFP: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY.As looked at last Friday there was a circulating worry around the Greenback as the initial stages of a carry unwind scenario had developed. It was widely spread that it was intervention but as I pointed out in that article, it was far too early to tell, and if we were looking at the move from a granular basis, it looked to be organic given the massive positioning imbalance that's built over the past five years.

Natural Gas News: Weather Forecast Through Mid-Feb Could Push Futures to $4.81.March natural gas rallies above $4.00 as cold forecast drives demand. Limited short interest may cap gains, but upside targets $4.49-$4.81 remain.

Fed's Musalem says no more rate cuts needed with policy now at neutral level.St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said on Friday ​the U.S. central bank does not ‌need to cut interest rates further unless the job market starts to deteriorate or inflation falls.

Colombia's central bank shocks with 100-bp rate hike to 10.25%.Colombia's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 10.25% on ​Friday, its first hike in nearly three years and a ‌larger move than most analysts had expected, as policymakers pointed to rising inflation pressures, a sharp jump in inflation expectations and mounting fiscal and external risks.

USD/JPY jumps as US Dollar strengthens on hawkish signals, Warsh nomination.USD/JPY jumps as US Dollar strengthens on hawkish signals, Warsh nomination

TWD: Central bank to hold policy steady – DBS Bank.TWD: Central bank to hold policy steady – DBS Bank

JPY: Weakness concerns amid intervention – BNY.JPY: Weakness concerns amid intervention – BNY

United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count below forecasts (412): Actual (411).United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count below forecasts (412): Actual (411)

Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Traders Stay Focused On Iran.Oil traders try to guess whether U.S. will strike Iran over the weekend.

Despite strong results, Apple, SoFi trend lower as Wall Street reflects on Warsh Fed nomination.Despite strong results, Apple, SoFi trend lower as Wall Street reflects on Warsh Fed nomination

China: PMI expectations and Lunar New Year caution – ABN AMRO.China: PMI expectations and Lunar New Year caution – ABN AMRO

Fed's Miran: Warsh is a fantastic pick.Fed's Miran: Warsh is a fantastic pick

Oil News: Will Supply Shock Spike Crude Oil Above $66.49 Resistance?.Crude oil needs Iran supply shock to break resistance, Reuters columnist says. Technical setup suggests market anticipates production disruption with breakout over $66.49.

U.S. Dollar Rallies As Trump Names Warsh As Fed Chair Pick: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.The higher-than-expected PPI report provided additional support to the American currency.

Fed's Bostic: Fed needs to remain vigilant.Fed's Bostic: Fed needs to remain vigilant

Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: Slips below 1.3800 as Warsh nomination, hot PPI boosts USD.Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: Slips below 1.3800 as Warsh nomination, hot PPI boosts USD

Fed's Waller: Labor market remains weak.Fed's Waller: Labor market remains weak

Natural Gas Price Analysis – Natural Gas Continues to Build a Base.The natural gas market continues to be very noisy and choppy, as it looks like we are trying to base, turning things around. Ultimately, there should still be another rally to the upside again before winter ends.

Crude Oil Price Analysis – Crude Oil Continues to Threaten Breakout.Crude oil continues to see a lot of pressures, but at this point in time, the markets are moving on geopolitics more than anything else.

Colombia National Jobless Rate up to 8% in December from previous 7%.Colombia National Jobless Rate up to 8% in December from previous 7%

Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair.We know from our many client discussions that there appears to be at least some degree of comfort with a Warsh led Fed vs. the other choices.