Electronic card transactions in New Zealand fell 0.5% month-over-month (seasonally adjusted) to NZD 6.89 billion in September 2025. Spending dropped in several categories, including consumables (-1%), motor vehicles (-2.7%), apparel (-0.4%), fuel (-1%), and durables (-0.4%), while spending in hospitality (+1.4%) rose. On an annual basis, total electronic card spending increased 1% in September, following a 0.9% rise in a month earlier, reflecting steady but moderate growth in consumer activity.

Goldman: Trump trade policy now key driver of US inflation. See tariffs delaying Fed cuts..Goldman Sachs says the latest round of U.S. tariffs is adding notable stickiness to inflation, warning that the cumulative impact could keep core PCE inflation around 3.0% year-on-year by December 2025, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 0.9% to 1% in September.New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 0.9% to 1% in September

AUD/USD, USD/JPY: Mild Rebound for Australian Dollar and Yen Faces Resistance.The Australian dollar was the strongest FX major on Monday as it retraced around half of Friday's sell-off alongside other risk assets. Although the Aussie's 0.7% gain was above its typical daily range, it remains dwarfed by the Trump-tariff-induced sell-off heading into the weekend.

WinnerMining: Fed Rate Cut Announcement Sparks Unexpected Optimism Among Cloud Mining Investors.The Fed's rate cut fuels optimism among cloud mining investors. WinnerMining emerges as a standout, offering zero entry barriers, multi-currency support, and stable returns amid global economic uncertainty.

Trading Day: Banks set to open earnings floodgate with Powell on tap.TRADING DAY

Australia - NAB Business Survey in focus as inflation pressures test RBA outlook.The September NAB Business Survey will be in focus today week as analysts gauge whether the recent improvement in private-sector activity has continued into the final month of Q3. Both business confidence (August was +7) and business conditions (+4) remain close to their long-term averages, pointing to a steady—if unspectacular—backdrop for corporate activity.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: $3.03 Support Sparks Bullish Response.Natural gas hit $3.03 before rallying above $3.09, signaling potential support at the 50-day average as buyers fight back.

In New York, the Dow Jones Index went up by 588 points or 1.29 percent on Monday. Top gainers were Nike (3.31%), Goldman Sachs (3.16%) and Salesforce (3.12%).

The Ibovespa rose 0.8% to close at 141,783 on Monday, led by industrials, commodity producers and banks after US signals dialled back weekend threats of tariffs and export controls on China, sharply reducing the near-term risk of a trade shock that would have hit Brazil’s exporters and supply chains. WEG, Banco do Brasil and Embraer gained between 1.3–3.1% and mega-caps Vale and Petrobras outperformed at 1.5% and 0.8% respectively as the trade thaw coincided with firmer commodity demand. Notably, record September iron-ore imports and a rebound in oil, which directly improves Brazil’s terms of trade and boosts expected dollar receipts for miners and energy producers. At the same time higher odds of US rate cuts eased global financing conditions. Domestically, softer inflation expectations have kept the case for a later, gradual monetary pivot intact, lengthening investors’ horizon for Brazilian equities.

US Stocks main indexes closed sharply higher on Monday, rebounding from Friday’s steep sell-off after President Trump struck a softer tone on US-China trade tensions, assuring that relations with Beijing “will all be fine.” The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.6% and 2.2%, respectively, while Dow Jones jumped 593 points, as investors rushed back into risk assets following Trump’s comments. His remarks helped ease fears of an escalating trade war after last week’s threat of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods wiped out roughly $2 trillion in market value. Gains were led by technology stocks, with Nvidia and AMD rising 2.9% and 0.8%, Oracle soaring 5.1%, and Broadcom surging 9.9% after confirming its AI partnership with OpenAI. Still, investors remained cautious amid a prolonged government shutdown and delayed economic data releases, while attention turned to the kickoff of earnings season, with major banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup set to report results this week.

Paraguay’s trade deficit widened to $613.2 million in September 2025 from $595.9 million a year earlier, marking the largest shortfall since December 2024. Imports surged 25.6% to $1.55 billion, led by sharp increases in purchases of capital goods (46.6%), consumer goods (26.4%), and intermediate goods (1.6%). Exports also rose but at a slower pace, climbing 13.3% to $940.9 million. Shipments were higher for manufactured products of agribusiness origin (28%), manufactured industrial goods (8.9%), primary products (4.1%), and fuels and energy (1.6%).

Gold surged past $4,100 per ounce on Monday, setting a fresh record high as escalating US-China trade tensions and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The rally intensified after President Donald Trump reignited trade frictions with Beijing, rattling investor sentiment and prompting a flight to safety. Traders are now pricing in a 97% chance of a Fed rate cut in October and are fully expecting another in December. Market anxiety was further heightened by the prolonged US government shutdown, with the White House proceeding with mass federal layoffs. On the geopolitical front, Trump announced that the Gaza war had ended as he traveled to Israel to oversee the release of hostages, adding another layer of uncertainty to global markets.

Australian Dollar recovers as trade tensions ease; focus turns to RBA minutes.Australian Dollar recovers as trade tensions ease; focus turns to RBA minutes

GBP/JPY snaps losing streak as Cable traders jostle for position.GBP/JPY snaps losing streak as Cable traders jostle for position

Crude oil futures settle at $59.49.The price is moving away from the swing area from August to mid September which bottomed the pair between $61.45 and $61.94. Staying below that area keeps the sellers more in control.

USD/JPY rebounds above 152.00 amid holiday market lull.USD/JPY rebounds above 152.00 amid holiday market lull

Uruguay’s manufacturing output contracted 6.3% year-on-year in August 2025, reversing the 4.2% increase recorded in July. The sharpest drag came from petroleum refining, which plunged 46% amid a partial shutdown at ANCAP’s José Ignacio oil buoy for maintenance. Food manufacturing and motor vehicle output also declined, by 5% and 45%, respectively. Offsetting part of the fall, pharmaceutical production grew 5.9%, while electrical equipment and chemical manufacturing rose 20.3% and 2%. Meanwhile, the Index of Hours Worked fell 8.5%, and the Index of Employed Personnel decreased 2.8%.

Brazil's Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI) rose to 47.2 in October 2025, up from 41.9 in September, signaling a mild improvement in sentiment but still below the 50-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism. The Current Conditions Index reached 43.2, reflecting better assessments of both company conditions (46.5, +1.3 points) and the Brazilian economy (36.7, +1.4 points). Meanwhile, the Expectations Index increased for the third consecutive month to 49.1 (from 48.3), indicating that confidence about the next six months remains cautious but less negative. Business owners reported improved expectations for the economy (41.0, +1.5 points) and slightly greater optimism regarding their own companies (53.2, +0.5 points).

Fed's Paulson signals support for two more 25 bps cuts in 2025.Fed's Paulson signals support for two more 25 bps cuts in 2025

Canadian Dollar struggles as US Dollar hits six-month high on trade optimism.Canadian Dollar struggles as US Dollar hits six-month high on trade optimism

U.S. Dollar Gains Ground As Traders Stay Focused On U.S. – China Relations: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.The American currency is moving higher despite worries about the trade war with China.

The Indian rupee edged up to around 88.6 per USD, bouncing back from its all-time low of 88.9 per USD on October 9, buoyed by likely RBI intervention and steady foreign inflows. The RBI is said to have resumed non-deliverable forwards interventions in August, stepping up activity further from September. The currency also found support on reports that senior Indian officials will visit the US this week for trade talks, with negotiations on the bilateral agreement reportedly progressing well. Traders also monitored easing geopolitical tensions. On the data front, September’s inflation eased to 1.54%, below market estimates of 1.7% and the RBI’s 2–6% target, fueling expectations of rate cuts. This follows the central bank’s dovish remarks on potential future rate cuts during its September meeting. The Reserve Bank of India kept rates on hold and maintained a neutral policy stance, noting that muted inflation provides flexibility to support the economy.

Palladium surged above $1,520 an ounce for the first time since early 2023, driven by strong safe-haven demand and expectations of US rate cuts. Tensions flared after China expanded rare earth export controls, prompting President Trump to announce an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods from November 1st. While this sharply escalated trade friction, subsequent White House signals suggest a potential easing. Markets now price in 25-basis-point Fed cuts in both October’s and December’s meetings. On the industrial side, platinum remains a long-term substitute for palladium, but rapid growth in hybrid vehicle production continues to support near-term demand. On the supply front, tightness persists. Recycling is expected to grow at a 7.5% CAGR from 2024 to 2029, yet high mining costs, long production cycles, coupled with declining mine output, mean recycling alone cannot fill the supply gap.

Germany's DAX finished about 0.6% firmer at 24,375 on Monday, supported by easing international tensions and the start of earnings season, with investors also eyeing Trump’s trade reversals and France’s political developments. Trump unexpectedly signaled he may soften his tariff plans against China, after announcing on Friday an additional 100% tariff and new export controls on “any and all critical software” starting November 1, in response to Beijing’s restrictions on rare earth exports. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a new cabinet in an effort to contain a growing political crisis, reappointing Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu. Among stocks, Siemens Energy (+2.4%), Fresenius Medical Care (+2.2%), Infineon Technologies (+1.8%) and Siemens (+1.6%) were the top gainers. On the downside, Commerzbank (-0.9%) and Bayer (-0.8%) posted the biggest declines.

In Frankfurt, the DAX Index rose 146 points or 0.60 percent on Monday. Leading the gains are Siemens Energy (2.36%), Fresenius Medical Care (2.17%) and Siemens (1.75%). Top losers were Commerzbank (-0.86%), Bayer (-0.80%) and Deutsche Telekom (-0.67%).

Corn futures slid toward $4.10 per bushel in October, hitting a one-month low as a surge of new supply overwhelmed available demand. South American output estimates were revised higher, with Argentina headed for a record crop and Brazil’s corn crop near 141.3 million tonnes, swelling exportable volumes and intensifying competition on world markets. In the United States a faster-than-expected harvest moved fresh bushels into elevators, pressuring local basis levels as farmer selling accelerated. Crucially, China pared back its 2025/26 corn import forecast, removing a key marginal buyer and shrinking global demand for shipments. Meanwhile USDA and private estimates point to larger-than-anticipated world ending stocks, and with feed and ethanol uptake failing to absorb the excess, the physical balance turned loose and sustained the downtrend in futures.

Lead decreased to 1988.00 USD/T, the lowest since September 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Lead lost 0.72%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 3.98%.

The Paris CAC 40 rose 0.2% to close at 7,934 on Monday as easing international trade tensions helped industrials rally while persistent political uncertainty capped broader gains. U.S. President Donald Trump’s softer rhetoric on possible 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, saying he did not want to “harm” China, lifted exporters and cyclicals, with STMicroelectronics, ArcelorMittal and Stellantis up roughly 2.8% to 3.1% and leading the advance. At the same time President Emmanuel Macron reappointed Sébastien Lecornu and kept the cabinet largely unchanged, a move that failed to remove doubts about the government’s ability to pass key measures in a deeply divided parliament and makes the planned budget presentation by Monday a critical test. On the downside Michelin, Kering and LVMH fell 2.8%, 1.7% and 1.0% respectively.

The FTSE 100 closed about 0.2% up at 9,443 on Monday, halting a two-day losing streak, led by precious and industrial miners on rising gold and copper prices. Endeavour Mining surged 12% and Fresnillo rose 8.8%, while Antofagasta, Anglo American, and Glencore gained 5.1%, 3.6%, and 3.4%, respectively. Lloyds Banking added 0.9% after announcing it would set aside an additional £800 million to cover compensation costs tied to the motor finance mis-selling scandal. This follows last week’s FCA ruling requiring lenders to pay £11bn after finding widespread failings in disclosing commissions and broker ties on agreements from April 2007 to November 2024. Conversely, defense stocks saw losses, with Babcock International and BAE Systems down 2.2% and 1.5%, likely tied to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. AstraZeneca gave up earlier gains and fell 0.5% after the company agreed to lower select US drug prices for three years of tariff relief, a deal promoted by President Trump to ease medicine costs.