Week Ahead: The War and Anticipated Policy Responses Drive the Capital Markets.There are two main drivers in the foreign exchange market: war and the anticipated monetary policy response. May WTI peaked on March 9 near $113.40.

Dollar Slides as ECB Out-Hawks Fed Amid Oil Shock and Rising Inflation Risks.Dollar had every reason to rally last week, but instead ended as the worst performer among major currencies. Sharp selloff in global equities, surging Treasury yields, and escalating geopolitical risks would typically trigger strong safe-haven demand for the greenback.

Rupee on shaky ground, touches fresh low of 93.73.The Indian rupee experienced its sharpest single-day fall since late 2022, plummeting to a historic low of 93.73 against the dollar. Surging oil prices, driven by escalating West Asian conflicts, coupled with overseas investor outflows, significantly pressured the currency.

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: Geopolitics in control as rates rise and energy whipsaws.The return of USD/JPY as a rates play has coincided with a sharp turn in the US rate outlook, with markets moving from pricing cuts to the risk of a hike. With that shift being driven by energy and geopolitical developments, it points to a market regime that remains reactive rather than settled.

The Weekly Bottom Line: The Fed Pauses, Inflation Persists.This week's data releases and Bank of Canada (BoC) statement describe a world that could have been, with a domestic backdrop that showed signs of easing inflation. The war in Iran has upended that.

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Risks Pullback as Hawkish Central Banks Cap Yield Support.DXY weakens for the week as hawkish global central banks offset rising US yields, raising downside risks despite a still-intact uptrend.

Brazil's new finance minister Durigan pledges 'continuity'.Brazil's new ​Finance Minister Dario Durigan said on Friday ‌he will pursue "continuity" of the economic policies taken by his predecessor, Fernando Haddad, who has left the role ​to run for Sao Paulo state governor in ​the October elections.

Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions down to €21.1K from previous €105.1K.Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions down to €21.1K from previous €105.1K

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions fell from previous 228K to 218.7K.United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions fell from previous 228K to 218.7K

United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions increased to £-65.5K from previous £-84.2K.United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions increased to £-65.5K from previous £-84.2K

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Compression Points to Volatility Expansion.Natural gas consolidates within a tightening triangle as resistance builds overhead, with price nearing a breakout point that could trigger a decisive directional move soon.

Farewell, Rate Cuts – Markets Weekly Outlook.A week ahead preview: A wave of Market repricings are taking traders by surprise, with Bonds and Metals not appreciating a single part of this. Get ready for the upcoming week by looking at the past week's Market performance, what changed and the key events to expect in next week)

US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD.I warned about chasing overbought markets at fresh highs last Friday, and that was the mirror image of the argument from late January when we had the USD at its most oversold in years.

Banxico seen holding rates at 7% amid war-driven inflation risks.Banxico seen holding rates at 7% amid war-driven inflation risks

Global bond rout deepens with concern over war-driven inflation.Government bond yields in the U.S. and Europe spiked on Friday as investor concern intensified over the inflationary impact of the war-driven global energy shock, with expectations the pressure will not ease ​anytime soon.

Argentina Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 2.1%, below expectations (2.2%) in 4Q.Argentina Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 2.1%, below expectations (2.2%) in 4Q

Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Rallies As Iran Rejects Negotiations On The Strait Of Hormuz.Iran wants the U.S. and Israel to stop the military operation before the country will be ready to discuss the reopening of the world's key oil route.

United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 414 vs 412.United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count: 414 vs 412

U.S. Dollar Rebounds As Treasury Yields Jump: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.The American currency is moving higher as traders focus on Middle East tensions and bet on hawkish Fed.

Crude Oil Weekly Price Analysis – Oil Has Noisy Week.The WTI crude oil market has been very noisy this week, as we have seen WTI go negative.

Hawkish Fed Hold and BoE Pivot Fuel Dollar Dominance: Forex Weekly Market Wrap (Week Ending March 20).Summary:The U.S. Dollar hit fresh yearly highs after the FOMC signaled a "green light" for bulls, while the Euro collapsed under the weight of a $120 oil shock. Sterling defied the broader "Risk-Off" trend after a unanimous Bank of England vote triggered a massive hawkish repricing in the Gilt curve.

Brazil real nears 5.3 as treasury steps in amid rising global risks.The Brazilian real extended its recent slide, weakening toward 5.3 per US dollar as investors reassessed both domestic and global risks. The currency's depreciation reflects a combination of internal liquidity concerns and external pressures, including heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a stronger US dollar weighing on emerging market currencies.

Natural Gas Price Analysis – Natural Gas Continues to Struggle to Hold Gains.Natural gas looks soft with each failing rally, as the overhang of warmer temperatures continues to cause a bit of a headache for those who are bullish. War in the Middle East could change things, but that is later this year.

Crude Oil Price Analysis – Crude Oil Continues to Chop in Nervous Market Conditions.Crude oil continues to watch the war and the latest shipping obstructions in the Persian Gulf.

RBI to conduct Rs 1 lakh cr overnight variable rate repo auction on Mar 23.The Reserve Bank of India on Friday said it will conduct an overnight variable rate repo (VRR) auction of Rs 1 lakh crore on March 23.

USD/JPY, USD/CAD and AUD/USD Forecasts – US Dollar Rising in Early Friday Trading.The USD rose again on Friday in early trading, as interest rates and safety take center stage for most traders.

Federal Reserve: Higher-for-longer stance maintained – Nordea.Federal Reserve: Higher-for-longer stance maintained – Nordea

US sends thousands of Marines and three warships to Middle East – WSJ.US sends thousands of Marines and three warships to Middle East – WSJ

Weekly Focus – Sustained Supply Shock Spurs Hawkish Repricing.It has been another highly volatile week, with financial markets moving on headlines from the war in Iran and sharp swings in energy prices. Attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East have escalated the conflict and prolonged the negative supply shock facing the global economy.

Eye on Stabilizing Job Vacancies and Industry Sales Rebound in Canada.Economic data releases in Canada are quiet in the week ahead with the most notable being January's Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) on Thursday, when we expect further stabilization in job vacancies following improvements in timelier job openings data from Indeed Hiring Lab.