Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Energy Markets Stall Below Key Averages.Brent, WTI, and Natural Gas post mixed moves as traders weigh supply risks, weak U.S. demand, and IEA forecasts. See why the outlook stays bearish.

Scotiabank US Dollar to Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Slide to 135-140 Realistic.The Japanese yen has not been able to make progress in global markets with the US Dollar to yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate trading just below 148.0 despite underlying dollar vulnerability. Scotiabank considers that USD/JPY is poised for a sharp decline as the exchange rate catches up with yield spreads.

Dollar Forecast: Three Fed Cuts Now Priced as Jobless Claims Hit 4-Year High.The US dollar slipped in volatile trading this week as markets priced in three Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end after jobless claims surged to a near four-year high. The labour-market shock has overshadowed stubborn US inflation at 2.9% and kept EUR/USD near seven-week highs around 1.17.

Week Ahead: Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada to Cut, while BOJ and BOE Stand Pat.The week ahead features five G10 central bank meetings. Two will most likely cut rates, the US and Canada, and two will stand pat, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Tests 20-Day Support, Bears Eye Breakdown.Natural gas tested support near $2.90 for a second day, holding at the 20-Day average and Fibonacci levels. A breakdown risks a deeper pullback into the descending channel.

In New York, the Dow Jones Index dropped 231 points or 0.50 percent on Friday. Losses were led by Merck (-2.75%), Sherwin-Williams (-2.14%) and Honeywell International (-1.79%). Offsetting the fall, top gainers were Apple (1.82%), Microsoft (1.76%) and Walmart (0.83%).

The Ibovespa fell 0.6% to close at 142,272 on Friday, pulling back from its record as investors weighed the economic fallout from the Supreme Court conviction of former president Jair Bolsonaro, which has raised the prospect of US retaliatory measures such as tariffs or targeted sanctions that could increase the effective cost of Brazilian exports and force a re-pricing of country risk. Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison in a historic ruling that also convicted several high-ranking military officers for actions judged to have attacked democratic institutions. The verdict drew heated international reactions, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio denouncing it as a "witch hunt" and former President Donald Trump calling it "terrible". Financial stocks underperformed, with Banco Santander down 1.1%, Itaúsa off 0.8% and Bradesco down 1.1%, as traders trimmed exposure to names deemed most vulnerable to higher trade costs and political spillovers.

investingLive Americas FX news wrap 12 Sep: USD closes higher. Univ.of Mich..The USD is closing the day mostly higher, though net changes were limited. The largest moves came against the NZD (+0.30%) and the JPY (+0.26%), while all other major currencies finished within 0.11% of Thursday's closing levels.

Stocks in the US closed mixed on Friday, with the S&P 500 finishing just below the flatline, the Dow Jones slipping 273 points, and the Nasdaq 100 hitting fresh highs. Investors interpreted soft jobs data and subdued inflation as signs that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next week. The Nasdaq rose 0.4%, boosted by a 7.4% jump in Tesla and a 1.7% gain in Microsoft after the company avoided a potential EU antitrust fine, lifting the broader tech sector. Tech and consumer discretionary stocks outperformed, while materials and health care lagged. Traders are largely pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting, with a small chance of a larger half-point reduction given the current economic data. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.6%, marking its best performance since early August, the Nasdaq rose 2%, and the Dow advanced 1.1%, posting its first weekly gain in three.

The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% to close at 29,284 on Friday as investors paused after two weeks of record-breaking rallies and turned their attention to likely interest-rate cuts from the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve next week. Odds of BoC easing rose after data showed Canada shed about 65,500 jobs in August and the unemployment rate climbed to 7.1%. A US CPI print roughly in line with expectations kept the path to Fed cuts intact, and markets now price about 75 basis points of easing this year, with some participants even wagering on a half-point move next week. Financials, miners and techs led the decline, with Brookfield Corporation down 1.4%, Barrick off 1.2% and Shopify down 1.1%. The TSX nevertheless posted a weekly gain of 0.8%.

Brent crude oil futures rose 0.9% to settle at $67 a barrel on Friday, booking a 2.3% gain on the week, driven by renewed concerns over Russian crude supply that outweighed worries about oversupply and weaker US demand. The Kremlin announced a pause in peace talks with Ukraine, raising the risk of further Western sanctions, while a drone attack on Russia’s Primorsk port temporarily halted oil loading operations. Earlier losses on Thursday followed the IEA’s report predicting faster-than-expected oil supply growth due to OPEC+ output increases, with Saudi Arabia also set to boost shipments to China. In the US, rising consumer prices and higher jobless claims fueled expectations of an upcoming Fed rate cut, potentially boosting oil demand. Meanwhile, US crude inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, highlighting ongoing balance concerns in the market.

Natural Gas News: Market Holds Key Support Zone as Weather Forecast Drives Uncertainty.Natural gas holds key support zone at $2.887–$2.947. Rising production and weak LNG demand cap upside despite warmer weather forecasts.

after earlier climbing as much as 2.6%, as US threats to sanction Russian crude failed to materialize, even amid ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks raising concerns over potential disruptions to Moscow’s exports. Ukrainian strikes temporarily halted operations at Primorsk, Russia’s main Baltic oil-loading port, and targeted three pumping stations feeding the Ust-Luga hub. Meanwhile, the US signaled it may push G-7 allies to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Russian oil purchases by China and India, with Canada convening a finance ministers’ meeting to discuss additional measures. The lack of immediate sanctions led traders to unwind bullish positions ahead of the weekend. Adding to pressure, the International Energy Agency forecast a record oil supply surplus next year, while OPEC+ plans to return idled barrels to the market in October, though at a slower pace.

Uruguay’s manufacturing output grew 4.2% year-on-year in July 2025, matching the pace of the previous month. The strongest contributions came from food manufacturing (+4.9%), petroleum refining (+45.4%), and metal products excluding machinery and equipment (+92.1%). Offsetting these gains, pharmaceutical production fell 6.3%, while paper products (-2.0%) and leather goods (-27.5%) also declined. Meanwhile, the Hours Worked Index dropped 2.0% year-on-year, and the Employment Index fell 2.9%.

What's up next week?... A bunch of things starting with the FOMC rate decision.The FOMC rate decision and Chair Powell's press conference will be the main focus next week. Alongside the Fed, three other central banks will also announce policy decisions: the Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 25 bps, while the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are likely to hold steady.

Sugar futures edged above 15.8 cents per pound as the USDA released its latest supply and demand report. For 2024/25, US sugar supply slipped to 14.716 million short tons, as a drop in beet sugar production outweighed higher imports. Beet sugar output fell 83,500 STRV due to a smaller-than-expected crop, while re-export and high-tier imports rose slightly. With sugar use unchanged, ending stocks increased modestly. Looking to 2025/26, US sugar supply is projected to decline 184,000 STRV, mainly from lower imports from Mexico, despite modest gains in beet and cane sugar production driven by higher yields in some regions. The Department of Commerce will use the outlook to set Mexico’s export limit starting October 1, projected at 219,638 STRV. Overall, the report points to tighter US sugar supplies, with production and import adjustments keeping the market balanced.

Sunflower oil futures fell past $1,340 per tonne, easing from a nearly four-month high of $1,359 on September 1st, as the shortage that pushed prices up earlier has somewhat subsided. Global supplies of other vegetable oils have increased which gives buyers cheaper substitutes and so they are not bidding up sunflower oil as aggressively. Crushing activity for palm and soybeans has risen and stockpiles in key export hubs have recovered which loosens overall vegetable oil balances. Reports of a larger than feared autumn crop in the Black Sea region and smoother export flows from other origins have eased worries about Ukrainian and Russian shipments. At the same time demand for blending and biofuels has softened in important consuming regions so processors are cutting forward purchases. Logistics problems that briefly constrained deliveries are also easing which allows more oil to reach ports and refiners.

Cotton futures were traded at 65.1 cents per pound as the USDA released its September 2025/26 outlook, showing slightly higher US production but little change in other supply and demand factors. The US crop is projected at 13.2 million bales, up 10,000 from last month, with a small decline in yield to 861 pounds per acre. With consumption, exports, imports, and ending stocks unchanged, the US stocks-to-use ratio remains just over 26 percent, and the season-average upland price stays at 64 cents per pound. Globally, production rises over 1 million bales, led by gains in China, India, and Australia, offsetting declines in Turkey, Mexico, and West Africa. World consumption increases by about 850,000 bales, while trade ticks up slightly. Beginning stocks fall roughly 1 million bales, and ending stocks drop 800,000 bales to 73.1 million, the lowest in four years.

Corn prices climbed toward $4.30 per bushel, their highest since early July, as traders digested an unexpectedly tight supply and demand balance despite record US production. The September WASDE lifted 2025/26 US corn output to a record 16.81 billion bushels on larger acreage even as it trimmed the yield slightly, while exports were raised to a record 2.98 billion bushels and ending stocks were pegged at 2.11 billion, only marginally lower than August despite the production bump. Meanwhile, wetter-than-ideal early-season conditions encouraged disease pressure (southern rust, tar spot) in key states such as Iowa, and intermittent heat and dryness in parts of the Eastern Corn Belt have raised the prospect that August crop-condition ratings, and thus final yields, could disappoint. At the same time, ethanol and feed/residual use remain firm and US export demand is running up against global competition.

Rice futures were little changed at $11.48 per hundredweight as the USDA released its 2025/26 outlook, showing larger US supplies and higher ending stocks. US beginning stocks rose 3.4 million cwt to 53.9 million, the largest since 1987, while total production was slightly higher at 208.8 million cwt due to increased harvested area despite a lower yield of 7,559 pounds per acre. Exports were cut 3.0 million cwt to 94.0 million because of uncompetitive prices and slow sales, and domestic use was reduced, lifting US ending stocks to 53.4 million cwt, 8.7 million above last month’s forecast. The US season-average farm price was lowered $1.00 to $13.20 per cwt. Globally, rice supplies reached a record 729.5 million tons, supported by higher beginning stocks, while trade and consumption rose slightly. World ending stocks climbed to 187.3 million tons, led by increases in the US and Pakistan.

Limited Movement by the Dollar After Inflation Meets Expectations.The US dollar remained broadly stable against most major currencies after American inflation on 11 September, which met expectations.

Wheat futures were around $5.20 per bushel as the USDA updated its 2025/26 outlook, showing higher exports and lower US ending stocks. US wheat exports were raised 25 million bushels to 900 million, driven by continued strong sales and shipments of Hard Red Winter wheat, while ending stocks were trimmed by the same amount to 844 million bushels, slightly below last year’s level. The season-average farm price was lowered $0.20 to $5.10 per bushel based on reported NASS prices and market expectations. Globally, wheat supplies are projected higher at 1,078.6 million tons, supported by stronger production in Australia, the EU, Russia, and several other major exporters. Global consumption is up 5 million tons to 814.5 million, primarily due to higher feed and residual use across multiple regions. World trade is also slightly higher at 214.7 million tons, with gains for the US and Australia offsetting declines for Russia and Ukraine.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 hit fresh highs in afternoon trading, with tech strength offsetting broader market weakness ahead of next week’s Fed decision. The Nasdaq was up 0.4%, supported by a 6% surge in Tesla and a 2.1% rise in Microsoft after the company avoided a potential EU antitrust fine, boosting the tech sector. The S&P 500 hovered near flat but still reached a fresh record, while the Dow Jones slipped about 188 points, dragged lower by Goldman Sachs and Sherwin-Williams. Tech, consumer discretionary sectors outperformed while materials and health were among the worst performers. Traders are widely expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting, with some also seeing slim odds of a larger half-point cut, as soft jobs data and contained inflation bolster the case for easing. For the week, the S&P 500 is up 1.6% for its best showing since early August, the Nasdaq has risen 2%, and the Dow is on pace for its first weekly gain in three.

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Gains Slightly as Traders Eye Fed Rate Cut.DXY edges higher but stays below 50-Day Moving Average as weak jobs data and firm CPI keep traders focused on Fed's next move. Rate cut bets dominate ahead of FOMC.

USD/JPY Forecast: The Japanese Yen Weakens Amid BOJ Outlook.As the week comes to an end, the USD/JPY has started to consolidate a bullish bias in favor of the U.S. dollar, with a short-term gain of around 0.4%. For now, buying pressure persists as no significant changes are expected in the stance of the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Monetary policy decisions will be the focus next week as monetary authorities face uncertainty on growth, debt, and trade flows. The Federal Reserve will headline policy decisions and update its Summary of Economic Projections. Decisions for G10 members also include the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, and the Norges Bank, while decisions by the Central Bank of Brazil, the South African Reserve Bank, and the Bank Indonesia headline those for emerging markets. Meanwhile, officials from the US and China will meet to continue discussing trade relations. On the data front, US retail sales and industrial production will update investors' view on consumer strength and how industries reacted to tariffs. Inflation rates are due from the UK, Canada, Japan, and South Africa, while trade data is expected from the Eurozone, India, Japan, and Australia. Lastly, China's monthly data dump will offer a updates on Asia's largest economy.

ECB's Nagel: More rate cuts could threaten price stability:.Overnight, a number of ECB officials spoke the "day-after" the interest rate decision where the central bank keep rates unchanged for the 2nd consecutive month:

Soybean futures eased to $10.35 per bushel following the September WASDE on Friday, after hitting a nine-week high of $10.41 earlier in the session. The report outlined a 2025/26 outlook with higher US production, higher crush, lower exports, and larger ending stocks compared to August. Production was estimated at 4.3 billion bushels, with gains in harvested area offsetting a slight yield reduction to 53.5 bushels per acre. Crush was raised by 15 million bushels on stronger soybean meal exports, while exports were trimmed by 20 million bushels due to greater competition from Russia, Canada, and Argentina. Ending stocks rose to 300 million bushels, up 10 million from last month, signaling more comfortable supplies. The season-average farm price was lowered by 10 cents to $10.00 per bushel, reinforcing a slightly bearish tone for futures despite global adjustments that reduced overall soybean ending stocks.

CBO sees lower GDP in 2025 with higher inflation and unemployment.The Congressional Budget Office is out with their projections for real GDP, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. The current projections are compared to January 2025 projections.

European stocks closed marginally lower on Friday as markets continued to assess the outlook on global rates and awaited Fitch's credit rating for France. The STOXX 50 index closed flat at 5,387 and the pan-European STOXX 600 eased 0.1% to 555, weighed by the pharmaceutical sector. Investors were cautious ahead of the possible downgrade to the French credit rating by Fitch due to political instability and its impact on widening deficits. In the meantime, pharmaceutical stocks in Europe sank after Goldman Sachs downgraded Novartis on rising competition from generic brands, pressuring its shares by 3% and driving Roche, AstraZeneca, and GSK to drop over 1%. Yesterday, the ECB signaled its easing cycle is complete, with President Lagarde noting the bank is now in a “good place” and that growth risks appear more balanced. On the week, the STOXX 50 gained 1.3% and the STOXX 600 advanced 1%.