Natural Gas News: Bearish Forecast for Next Week as Mild Weather Caps Demand.Mild weather, strong supply, and weak LNG exports drive a bearish natural gas market forecast, with limited upside expected next week despite tight inventories.

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY ignores yields, follows fear.USD/JPY continues to shrug off traditional drivers like yield spreads and Fed pricing, aligning more closely with classic safe havens like gold and Swiss franc. Unless that dynamic breaks, trade headlines and Treasury auctions may prove more influential than central bank speech or second-tier data releases in the week ahead.

Fed's Goolsbee hopes US not moving to where monetary independence is questioned.Austan Goolsbee told CBS' "Fact the Nation" that central banks that have the ability to conduct monetary policy with no political tampering have better outcomes for their economies.

Natural Gas News: Forecast Turns Bearish as Warm Weather Dims Demand Outlook.Bearish sentiment dominates the natural gas forecast as spring temperatures curb demand, despite below-average storage injection and stable output.

Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast: Volatility Looms as Japan Services PMI and US Data Loom.The Yen strengthens on risk aversion and recession fears. Will Tokyo CPI and US data reinforce bearish pressure on USD/JPY or spark a rebound?

Japan seeks 'fairness' in currency talks with US, Prime Minister Ishiba says.Japan will emphasise "fairness" in any discussions with the U.S. on exchange rates, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Sunday, as bilateral trade talks grab global attention in President Donald Trump's tariff offensive.

US Dollar to "Bounce in Coming Weeks, Especially vs EUR and GBP" - SC.Standard Chartered Bank sees the US administration's tariff pause as a sign of shifting priorities, with trade deals and domestic stimulus likely to take centre stage. "We expect the US to eventually strike trade deals with major partners.

Week Ahead: Manic Activity Restrained, but Could Return.Last week, the capital markets were not as manic as the previous week but the uncertainty stemming from Washington remains intense. Outside of tariffs on Mexican tomatoes, the US tariffs were not extended but new investigations were opened that will likely lead to more tariffs down the road.

Hang Seng Index: Strong China GDP and Trade Tensions Drive Market Divergence.Hang Seng rebounds on upbeat China GDP, retail sales surge, and Beijing stimulus pledges, defying US market losses and tariff headwinds.

In New York, the Dow Jones Index fell 527 points or 1.33 percent on Thursday. Leading the losses are Walmart (-0.27%), UnitedHealth (-0.26%) and Travelers Companies (-0.09%).

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bears Dominate, but Support Hints at Possible Rebound.While natural gas remains in a downtrend, Thursday's outside day and Fibonacci support hint at a potential short-term reversal if there is a signal.

GBPUSD increased to a 28-week high of 1.33. Over the past 4 weeks, British Pound US Dollar gained 2.17%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 7.41%.

Oil News: Geopolitical Heat Sparks Oil Rally—Even as Long-Term Outlook Turns Bearish.Crude oil rallies 5.18% despite bearish oil outlook from IEA, EIA, and OPEC+. Traders eye short-term upside on sanctions, tariffs, and supply risk.

Natural Weekly Price Outlook – Natural Gas Continues to Drift Lower.The natural gas market has drifted a little lower in the past week, as the demand for heating continues to dwindle. At this point in time, the markets continue to see a lot of questions asked of demand.

Global markets will remain reactive to trade policy from the United States and reactionary measures from China, the EU, Japan, and key trading partners in the ASEAN bloc. Uncertainty on the path of tariffs by the US amid threats of escalation against pledges to strike trade deals continue to drive volatility across all asset classes. Meanwhile, the earnings season for global stocks continues with Alphabet, Tesla, Boeing, Intel, IBM, Merck, and P&G to headline US events. SAP, BNP Paribas, AON, and Sanofi are awaited in Europe. On the economic calendar, flash PMI readings will unveil the initial impact of tariff threats across major economies with results awaited by the US, the Euro Area, Japan, India, and Australia. Durable goods orders and existing home sales will also be eyed in the US, and key confidence gauges are awaited in Germany, France, and the UK, followed by retail sales from the latter. On the monetary policy front, the PBoC is set to hold loan prime rates in China.

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar a Bit Mixed.Good Friday was of course a bit thin in trading, but it looks as if the US dollar continues to see some issues. At this point in time, the USD is oversold, and there is the concern about weekend headlines, a given in the Trump era.

Trump-Powell Feud Escalates: Rate Cut Pressure Sparks Concern Over Fed Autonomy.Trump renews attacks on Fed Chair Powell, demanding rate cuts and raising fears over Fed independence—markets brace for rising political risk.

The Week Ahead – Markets Steady Before Major Moves.Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) resumes the uptrend The Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) continues its advance after jumping over 300 pips from the start of April. President Trump removed key technology products from his reciprocal tariffs, including some from China, which offered a boost to the Aussie as China remains Australia's largest trading partner.

WTI Oil: Strong Weekly Gain Boosts Reversal Signals.WTI oil has registered the second weekly gain (the contract was up 3.3% this week), lifted by growing optimism over easing trade tensions between the USA and the European Union and signals of possible deal, new US sanctions on Iran and initial positive signals in US – China trade relations.

Oil Rebound, Not Yet a Trend Reversal.Oil ended the week up over 4%, continuing the rebound that began on 9 April following a strong rally due to tariff postponement. Prices managed to recover from 4-year lows by more than 16%, which is impressive and brings the market closer to bullish territory.

China Cabinet Meeting: Will step up counter-cyclical adjustment.Will step up counter-cyclical adjustment. Will strive to stabilise employment, foreign trade.

Steel rebar futures in China fell to CNY 3,020 per tonne in April, the lowest in seven months, amid strong supply and an uncertain demand outlook. The trade war between China and the US significantly hampered expectations on manufacturing demand from China, hurting its growth outlook and increasing the risk that the country's property crisis may be far from its bottom. Concerns that property prices may continue to fall due to weak consumer demand maintained pressure on the balance sheet of debt-ridden developers, risking their liquidation and removing a large source of demand for global rebar. Lower demand and increasing trade protectionism had previously driven Beijing to signal capacity cuts in the steel sector, but the latest data showed that mills continued to churn out more steel. Crude steel output in China rose by 3.6% annually to 93 million tons in March.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China sank by 10.8% from the previous year to about $36.9 billion in the first quarter of 2025. The result followed the 27.1% slump in 2024, which was the sharpest decline in foreign direct investment on record with data going back to 2008. The decline continued to reflect weaker foreign confidence into largest projects in the Chinese economy, pressured by risks of a deflationary spiral and the view that the government delayed in its stimulus response, recently magnified by the threat of tariffs from the United States governemnt. Additionally, opaque balance sheets for manufacturers and service providers held the unease of foreign investors. Still, signs of economic support from the government and hints that the CCP may relax its tight control on the tech sector raised sentiment for portfolio investments in China at the turn of the year, potentially translating into higher direct investments later in the year.

China's top legislature to meet on 27-30 April this month.The main agenda this time around is to continue reviewing draft private sector promotion law. For some context, the draft was released for public consultations during October last year.

Japan Government: Economy recovering moderately but sees uncertainty from US trade policy.Economy recovering moderately but sees uncertainty from US trade policy. Sees downside risks to economic outlook increasing due to the US trade policies.

Italy Trade Balance EU up to €-0.361B in February from previous €-0.635B.Italy Trade Balance EU up to €-0.361B in February from previous €-0.635B

Russian rouble strengthens past 81 vs U.S. dollar, up 40% since start of 2025.The Russian rouble strengthened past 81 to the U.S. dollar, supported by rising oil prices, reaching its highest level since June 28, 2024.

Italy posted a trade surplus of €4.466 billion in February of 2025, narrowing from the €6.000 billion surplus in the corresponding period of the previous year amid a jump in annual import turnover. Imports rose by 4.1% annually to €49.325 billion, lifted by a 39.6% surge in foreign purchases of natural gas, amid some traction in Italian power demand while uncertain supply due to the halt of flows from Ukraine at the turn of the year raised prices. Foreign purchases also rose for food and beverages (8.2%), pharmaceutical articles (21%), and transportation goods. In turn, exports grew by a softer 0.8% annually to €53.791 billion, as increased sales of pharmaceutical goods (31.2%), transportation goods excluding autos (9.6%) and sporting goods (6.5%) offset declines in cars (-11.5%), machinery (-11.5%), and coke and refined petroleum chemicals (-25.8%).

Producer prices in Slovenia rose by 1.2% year-on-year in March 2025, accelerating from a 0.5% drop in the previous month. This marked the fastest growth in producer prices since August 2023, as costs picked up for mining and quarrying (2.8% vs 2.4% in February) and manufacturing (1.1% vs 0.7%). At the same time, prices rebounded for electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply (1.4% vs -4.8%), while it increased at a softer pace for water supply (5.4% vs 5.8%). On a monthly basis, producer prices advanced by 0.8% in March, following a 0.4% increase in the preceding period.

ECB's Muller: Rates no longer a constraint on economic activity.European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Madis Muller explained on Friday that their decision to cut key rates by 25 basis points at the April policy meeting was supported by the drop in energy prices, and tariffs.