Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Ceasefire Holds — But WTI Crashes Below $96, Next Stop $91?.With geopolitical risk fading, oil benchmarks turn lower on profit-taking and technical breakdowns. WTI confirms bearish channel break, Brent tests lower support, while NatGas faces continued pressure from mild weather and strong storage builds.

United States Challenger Job Cuts up to 83.687K in April from previous 60.62K.United States Challenger Job Cuts up to 83.687K in April from previous 60.62K

Indian Rupee rebounds as oil prices slide on US-Iran deal hopes.The Indian Rupee recovered from early losses and turned positive against the US Dollar during Thursday's afternoon trading session in India, supported by a sharp decline in oil prices and renewed optimism surrounding possible progress in US-Iran negotiations. The USD/INR pair slipped to near 94.34 as crude oil prices came under heavy selling pressure following reports suggesting a possible breakthrough regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route that handles nearly 20% of global energy supply.

Japan may have spent $32 billion in additional yen-buying intervention.Japan may have spent as much as 5.01 trillion ​yen ($32.06 billion) in its latest efforts to bolster its embattled ‌currency, central bank data indicated on Thursday, signalling repeated bouts of intervention in markets.

USD/JPY Price Outlook: Is the Rejection From 155 Sustainable?.Uncertain headlines are ultimately quantified through price action—and in USD/JPY, this dynamic is now clearly visible. The pair's recent rejection near the 155 support highlights a defining zone between a steep drawdown and a potential recovery, as institutional positioning adjusts to evolving macro risks.

Eurozone Retail Sales Slip -0.1% mom in March as Fuel Demand Weakens.Eurozone retail sales edged lower in March, with the volume of retail trade falling -0.1% mom, outperforming expectations for a steeper -0.4% mom decline. The data suggest consumer spending remains soft, as higher energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty continue weighing on confidence across the region.

USD: Softer tone as Fed seen delaying cuts – MUFG.USD: Softer tone as Fed seen delaying cuts – MUFG

German banks have capital but find few good borrowers, Bundesbank says.German banks have vast excess capital but do not lend it to companies and households because there is little demand ​from good borrowers and the outlook is uncertain due to ‌the Iran war, the Bundesbank's chief supervisor Michael Theurer said on Thursday.

United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI registered at 39.7, below expectations (45.7) in April.United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI registered at 39.7, below expectations (45.7) in April

First Light News: One-page Memorandum, Many Questions.As the US-Iran war nears its 10th week, the dominant story shaping market sentiment is a potential peace deal.

GBP/JPY flatlines around 212.50 amid UK elections, Yen intervention risks.GBP/JPY flatlines around 212.50 amid UK elections, Yen intervention risks

Iran: Intense communications to gradually reopen Hormuz - Al-Hadath.Iran: Intense communications to gradually reopen Hormuz - Al-Hadath

EUR/JPY steadies near 183.50 as strong German data meets firm Japanese Yen.EUR/JPY steadies near 183.50 as strong German data meets firm Japanese Yen

Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (1.75%).Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (1.75%)

NOK: Norges Bank seen hiking and guiding higher – Danske Bank.NOK: Norges Bank seen hiking and guiding higher – Danske Bank

Japan to keep intervening to defend 160-per-dollar level, ex-BOJ official says.Japan likely intervened during the Golden ​Week holidays and will step back into the market if the yen renews its slide below the psychologically ‌key 160-per-dollar level, Atsushi Takeuchi, a former central bank official who took part in Tokyo's market forays a decade ago, told Reuters.

French trade deficit widened in March as energy imports start to push up.Given the fallout from the Middle East conflict, this isn't surprising. We've seen a similar episode before during the Russia-Ukraine war, so this will very much follow the same path.

USD/JPY: Intervention risks and 155 target – OCBC.USD/JPY: Intervention risks and 155 target – OCBC

Brent: Market reacts to Iran peace prospects – Rabobank.Brent: Market reacts to Iran peace prospects – Rabobank

Don't Count Your Chickens Before They Hatch.Optimism over no further escalation turned into euphoria yesterday on news that a peace proposal is on the table that could end the war in Iran. The headlines have not flipped yet this morning — at the time of writing, the major headline is still that the US and Iran ‘weigh potential deal'.

Norges Bank Set to Hike, Riksbank Expected to Hold Steady.In Norway, we expect Norges Bank to raise the policy rate by 25bp to 4.25%. The March meeting indicated a rate hike was likely at one of the forthcoming monetary policy meetings, with the rate path suggesting a higher probability for June.

German Factory Orders climb by 5.0% MoM in March vs. 1.0% expected.German Factory Orders climb by 5.0% MoM in March vs. 1.0% expected

NZD: Soft labour data caps RBNZ tightening – Commerzbank.NZD: Soft labour data caps RBNZ tightening – Commerzbank

Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) increased to 6.3% in March from previous 3.5%.Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) increased to 6.3% in March from previous 3.5%

Crude Oil Traders Face Whipsaw Risk as Iran Talks Shift Sentiment.Razan Hilal, Market Analyst at FOREX.com, analyzes crude oil price volatility as U.S.-Iran negotiations drive rapid sentiment shifts and technical reversals. Prices dropped sharply on optimism around a potential deal, only to rebound as uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing disruptions resurfaced.

Markets Party on Peace Hopes, but Oil and Beirut Strike Warn Risks Aren't Gone.Global markets are throwing a full-scale “peace party.” Equities are surging relentlessly, risk appetite is exploding higher, and investors are increasingly behaving as though the Middle East crisis is already moving toward resolution.

US Dollar Index hovers around 98.00 as safe-have demand eases on US-Iran optimism.US Dollar Index hovers around 98.00 as safe-have demand eases on US-Iran optimism

Oil Prices Recover as Tight Supply Offsets Middle East Peace Optimism.Oil prices recovered after Wednesday's sharp drop as traders remained cautious about the Middle East peace outlook, while tight supply and falling U.S. inventories kept Brent and WTI supported.

WTI consolidates below $93.00 as traders assess likelihood of US-Iran peace deal.WTI consolidates below $93.00 as traders assess likelihood of US-Iran peace deal

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Grinds higher above 113.00, bullish trend holds above key average.AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Grinds higher above 113.00, bullish trend holds above key average