What Would It Take to Tip the Economy into Recession? Oil Prices & Recession Risk Roadmap.With intraday oil prices nearly hitting $120/barrel over the past day (and then receding almost as fast), we know some folks are wondering about potential downside economic risks. So let's talk about it.

RBA's Hauser signals “genuine debate” at March policy meeting.RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser signaled that policymakers face a difficult decision at next week's board meeting, warning that the recent surge in oil prices is adding new uncertainty to the inflation outlook. Speaking in an interview with The Conversation, Hauser said there will be “a lot for the board to discuss” when it meets later this month.

ECB: Market questions zero-tolerance stance – Commerzbank.ECB: Market questions zero-tolerance stance – Commerzbank

Austria Industrial Production (YoY) climbed from previous -3.3% to 0.3% in January.Austria Industrial Production (YoY) climbed from previous -3.3% to 0.3% in January

Expect Markets to Still be Pushed Back and Forth by Headlines on Conflict in the Middle East.Yesterday's price moves on almost all markets were again highly correlated to the intraday swings in oil prices. Brent oil in Asian trading almost touched the $120 p/b level as the there was no indication after the weekend that the conflict in the Middle East would end anytime soon.

France Current Account increased to €2.1B in January from previous €-0.6B.France Current Account increased to €2.1B in January from previous €-0.6B

France Exports, EUR: €53.4B (January) vs €53.1B.France Exports, EUR: €53.4B (January) vs €53.1B

Oil Takes Centre Stage as Markets Rebound Globally.Markets will be looking closely for any additional comments from the Trump administration confirming or rejecting the narrative that the war in the Middle East is getting close to an end.

JPY: June hike prospects support currency – ING.JPY: June hike prospects support currency – ING

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains traction above 100-day EMA with bullish RSI momentum.AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains traction above 100-day EMA with bullish RSI momentum

India: Tariff reset and sector winners – DBS.India: Tariff reset and sector winners – DBS

Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) dipped from previous 5.1% to -5.7% in January.Sweden Industrial Production Value (MoM) dipped from previous 5.1% to -5.7% in January

Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY) fell from previous 4.2% to 1.9% in January.Sweden Industrial Production Value (YoY) fell from previous 4.2% to 1.9% in January

Pound Higher Against Euro and Dollar as Trump Signals War's End.The pound rallied against both the euro and dollar as Trump signalled the Iran conflict could end soon. File image.

Brent: Volatile war premium unwinds on Iran headlines – MUFG.Brent: Volatile war premium unwinds on Iran headlines – MUFG

Fed: Conflict complicates rate-cut path – BNY.Fed: Conflict complicates rate-cut path – BNY

Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.4%) in February.Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.4%) in February

Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM) declined to 0.4% in January from previous 0.5%.Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM) declined to 0.4% in January from previous 0.5%

Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume fell from previous 0.8% to 0% in January.Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume fell from previous 0.8% to 0% in January

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Softens below 183.50 on safe-haven demand, but holds mildly bullish outlook.EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Softens below 183.50 on safe-haven demand, but holds mildly bullish outlook

Dollar Weakens as Oil Shock Repriced Into Managed Conflict.Global markets have begun to regain stability after Monday's oil-driven turmoil, with Asian equities rallying today following a rebound in US markets overnight. Investors appear to be shifting away from the extreme scenario of a catastrophic oil supply collapse toward a more contained outlook for the Iran conflict.

WTI Price Forecast: Retakes $88.00 as Strait of Hormuz closure fuel supply disruption fears.WTI Price Forecast: Retakes $88.00 as Strait of Hormuz closure fuel supply disruption fears

US Dollar Index gathers strength to near 99.00 on Middle East tensions, US CPI data looms.US Dollar Index gathers strength to near 99.00 on Middle East tensions, US CPI data looms

China trade surges as exports jump 21.8% and imports beat forecasts.China's trade activity accelerated sharply in the first two months of 2026, according to data released by the country's Customs agency. Exports surged 21.8% yoy, far exceeding expectations of a 7.1% increase.

Oil Price Analysis: Crude Drops Amid Russian Supply Talks and War Uncertainty.Oil markets remain volatile as the U.S.–Iran conflict, Middle East supply risks, and potential easing of Russian oil sanctions continue to shift global supply expectations.

USD/JPY forecast: shooting star forms after Japan GDP data.The USD/JPY exchange rate pulled back slightly, moving from this week's high of 158.85 to 157 as geopolitical tensions fell and after Japan published strong macro data. So, what next for the pair ahead of the upcoming US inflation report?

China exports surge 21.8% as trade surplus widens at start of 2026 - more detail.China's export engine accelerated sharply at the start of 2026, underscoring the country's continued reliance on overseas demand as a key driver of economic growth.

China Trade Balance CNY came in at 1.5B, below expectations (950B) in February.China Trade Balance CNY came in at 1.5B, below expectations (950B) in February

China's exports turbocharge into 2026 after record-breaking year.China's export growth quickened in the January-February period, customs data showed on Tuesday, keeping the world's second-largest economy on track to top its record $1.2 trillion trade ​surplus over the course of 2026.

Australian Dollar remains subdued following China's Trade Balance data.Australian Dollar remains subdued following China's Trade Balance data