How To Trade a Risky Long Weekend.A diverse range of markets will be closed on Friday and Monday for the Easter holidays. To add to the challenge for traders, this is an extended period with a high likelihood of major market-moving events in the Middle East.

US NFP Beats Strongly at 178k, Unemployment Falls as Wage Growth Misses.US labor market showed strong resilience in March, with non-farm payrolls rising 178k, far above expectations of 48k. The solid gain more than offset the downward revision in February, which was revised from -92k to -133k, while January's figure was revised higher from 126k to 160k, reinforcing a volatile hiring trend.

United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) registered at 3.5%, below expectations (3.7%) in March.United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) registered at 3.5%, below expectations (3.7%) in March

United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) below expectations (0.3%) in March: Actual (0.2%).United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) below expectations (0.3%) in March: Actual (0.2%)

United States Labor Force Participation Rate declined to 61.9% in March from previous 62%.United States Labor Force Participation Rate declined to 61.9% in March from previous 62%

USD/JPY trades sideways before US jobs report with intervention risks in focus.USD/JPY trades sideways before US jobs report with intervention risks in focus

India FX Reserves, USD down to $688.06B in March 23 from previous $698.35B.India FX Reserves, USD down to $688.06B in March 23 from previous $698.35B

Dollar Lagging Behind Oil.Brent saw a sharp rally amid renewed threats from Donald Trump, but EURUSD stabilised after a decline amid expectations for the US employment report. Bloomberg experts forecast a return to growth in non-farm payrolls in March following one of the sharpest declines in February.

Risk of Escalation Discourages Risk Taking while US Jobs Report May Extend the Dollar's Narrow Ranges.The shroud of the Middle East war overhangs the Good Friday holiday. The attack on an Iranian bridge yesterday threatens a response in kind by Tehran, and this will serve to keep risk appetites in check ahead of the weekend.

New Zealand Dollar Price Analysis – Kiwi Plunges to Test Same Level on Thursday - 03 April 2026.NZD/USD fell sharply to the key 0.57 support for the third time this week after Trump's address spiked US rates, before bouncing as markets reassessed, with 0.58 resistance and US 10-year yields at 4.30% as the next critical levels to watch.

Swiss Franc Forecast to Stay Firm Despite SNB Relief on Inflation: Rabobank.The Swiss Franc is expected to remain well supported in the coming months, with Rabobank forecasting further strength despite a modest rebound in inflation easing pressure on policymakers. EUR/CHF traded around 0.9213, holding above recent lows but still close to levels that have prompted concern from Swiss authorities.

Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will NFP Data Fuel WTI's Breakout to $120?.WTI Crude clears $112 as geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz threaten 20% of global supply. Will the upcoming NFP report drive prices toward $119.30?

Italy Public Deficit/GDP down to -1.4% in 4Q from previous 3.4%.Italy Public Deficit/GDP down to -1.4% in 4Q from previous 3.4%

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Gains on War Risks Before U.S. Jobs Report.Dollar jumps as Trump speech sparks risk-off flows, oil surges, and traders position ahead of the U.S. jobs report. DXY supported by safe-haven demand.

Intraday Analysis 03.04.2026.Intraday forex analysis today, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and EURJPY

Pound Sterling Forecast 2026: Lloyds Favours Short GBP vs EUR, NOK and AUD.The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is trading around 1.3239 while the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) rate has held near 1.1469, with Sterling struggling to regain ground after losses over the past two weeks. Lloyds warns that the Iran war has created a difficult backdrop for the Pound, with higher energy prices threatening another.

WTI remains stronger near $104 as Trump threats fuel supply fears.WTI remains stronger near $104 as Trump threats fuel supply fears

Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 30.87%, below expectations (31.4%) in March.Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 30.87%, below expectations (31.4%) in March

Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (2.32%) in March: Actual (1.94%).Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (2.32%) in March: Actual (1.94%)

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Gathers strength to near 184.00, bullish bias persists above 100-day EMA.EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Gathers strength to near 184.00, bullish bias persists above 100-day EMA

Natural Gas News: Bearish Forecast as Inventory Report Pressures Market.Bearish natural gas market as EIA inventory report shows strong builds, while weak demand and warm weather keep pressure on futures and limit upside potential.

Russia S&P Global Services PMI declined to 49.5 in March from previous 51.3.Russia S&P Global Services PMI declined to 49.5 in March from previous 51.3

Australian Dollar gains traction ahead of US jobs report.Australian Dollar gains traction ahead of US jobs report

Elliott Wave Signals DAX Rally Resumption Ahead.The DAX Index experienced a notable correction from the July 11, 2025 high, unfolding in a complex expanded flat Elliott Wave structure. From that peak, wave A concluded at 22,943.06, followed by a rally in wave B that terminated at 25,507.79.

US Dollar Index holds gains near 100.00 as traders focus on US jobs data and Iran conflict.US Dollar Index holds gains near 100.00 as traders focus on US jobs data and Iran conflict

BOJ to raise rates with eye on Iran war fallout, central bank official says.The Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates while keeping a close ​eye on how the Middle East conflict affects ‌the economy and underlying inflation, a senior central bank official said on Friday.

US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to rise by 60K in March.US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to rise by 60K in March

China Services PMI slows as domestic demand offsets weak external conditions.China's services sector remains in expansion but is slowing, with domestic demand supporting growth while weak exports, falling employment and price discounting point to softer underlying momentum.

RBI curbs widen dollar-rupee forwards-NDF spread.The Reserve Bank of India has banned banks from offering or rebooking rupee non-deliverable forward contracts. This move widens the gap between domestic and overseas currency markets.

USD/JPY Holds Strong, NFP Looms as Next Big Catalyst.Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair cleared the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 160.46 swing high to the 158.27 low. The pair is now well above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).