Italy's banks back digital euro, want costs spread over time.Italian banks support the European Central Bank's digital euro project but want investments required by them to implement it to be staggered over time because the costs are high, a top official of the Italian Banking Association (ABI) said.

Oil News: Crude Oil Edges Up as Trump-Hungary Meeting Sparks Sanction Speculation.WTI crude rebounds as Trump-Orban meeting fuels speculation on Russian oil sanctions. Inventory build and key resistance levels limit bullish oil outlook.

Week Ahead: Dollar Recovery Getting Tired.The markets were not impressed with the ADP private sector jobs estimate. Although it increased for the first time since July, the average over the three months through October was 3.3k, the weakest since August 2020.

Dollar Ends Mixed as AI Bubble Fears, US Shutdown, and Tariff Court Case Collide.It was another volatile week in global markets, defined less by fresh data and more by the growing weight of unresolved macro risks. With the U.S. government still in shutdown and a raft of key economic reports missing, investors were left to trade sentiment rather than facts — and sentiment turned sharply negative mid-week.

Dollar ends week lower amid Fed outlook, US government shutdown.The U.S. dollar declined against major currencies like the euro and Swiss franc as investors weighed the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance against economic uncertainties. A prolonged government shutdown delayed the release of crucial jobs data, while falling Chinese exports added to global economic concerns.

Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Flatlining as traders hunt for a catalyst.The relationship between USD/JPY and U.S. interest rates continues to strengthen, especially at the front end of the curve which is heavily influenced by shifts in monetary policy expectations. With no top-tier economic data on the calendar due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, that puts greater emphasis on Treasury auctions and speeches from Federal Reserve officials to drive direction in the week ahead.

The Weekly Bottom Line: Consumer Sentiment Falls as Shutdown Enters 38th Day.There was plenty for markets to digest this week, with a jobs report and of, course, the federal government's massively hyped budget (see our analysis of the latter here).

Forward Guidance: Canada's Industry Data to Show Stabilization in Trade Exposed Sectors.Manufacturing has borne the brunt of the negative fallout from U.S. tariffs since spring. Production contracted an annualized 9% in Q2.

The Ibovespa edged higher to close at a record high of 153,938 on Friday as markets assessed a batch of corporate earnings amid hopes of an improving macroeconomic backdrop. Domestic producer prices fell for the first time in over one year in October, raising hopes that disinflation for consumers may allow the central bank to start cutting interest rates next year. Banks closed higher as long-dated benchmark rates dropped, with Itau, Bradesco, and Santander Brasil adding between 2% and 0.5%. Energy stocks also surged amid the rebound in crude oil prices, with Prio, Vibra, and Ultrapar adding more than 4% each. Meanwhile, Petrobras rose 3.4% after posting a growth in profit for the quarter, as an increase in crude oil production offset the slide in benchmark prices in the period due to a series of output hikes by OPEC+ members.

The S&P/TSX Composite erased losses to close 0.5% higher at 29,912 on Friday as investors assessed corporate earnings and strong labor data. The domestic unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 6.9%, while employment surged and wage growth increased, reinforcing signs that the BoC’s easing cycle is unlikely to continue. Commodity giants led the gains as gold and oil prices ended the week higher, with Canadian Natural, Barrick Gold, Wheaton, and TC Energy advancing between 4% and 2%. Meanwhile, Enbridge closed 1% higher despite reporting an EPS of C$0.46, below forecasts of C$0.54. Also, Shopify fell 2.4% as markets continued to pressure companies with bets on AI for exaggerated valuations.

US stocks rebounded from early losses to close mostly higher on Friday amid hopes that Congress members were making progress toward ending the government shutdown. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones closed 0.3% higher, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed near the flatline as AI giants remained under pressure. Senate Republicans rejected Democrats' offer to scale down shutdown demands, but lingering hopes of an incoming agreement improved risk sentiment before the closing bell. The suspension of operations and government data were evidenced by the deteriorating consumer confidence measured by the University of Michigan survey, which came out at the second-worst reading on record in November. Consumer defensive and energy companies led the gains, with Exxon Mobil, T-Mobile, and Coca-Cola adding more than 2%. In turn, concerns that valuations for AI companies have been stretched too far continued to pressure the tech sector, with Tesla dropping 4% while Meta and Oracle fell 2%.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: $4.42 Rejection Signals Four-Day Top – Inside Day Looms.Natural gas opened with a push to $4.42 Friday before sellers reversed the move to a $4.27 low, leaving price near session lows at writing.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Rebounds above 153.00 as buyers stepped in.USD/JPY Price Forecast: Rebounds above 153.00 as buyers stepped in

Total US consumer credit rose by $13.09 billion in September 2025, following an upwardly revised $3.13 billion gain in August and above market expectations of a $10 billion increase. It is equivalent to an increase of 3.1% at an annual rate. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2% or $1.65 billion, following a $6.07 billion decline in August. Nonrevolving credit which includes auto and student loans went up 2.9% or $11.44 billion, following a $9.2 billion gain in the previous month.

Argentina’s industrial production fell 0.7% year-on-year in September 2025, easing from a 4.4% drop in August. Seven of sixteen manufacturing divisions recorded declines, led by textiles (-20.5%), clothing, leather and footwear (-14.0%), metal products (-11.8%), and rubber and plastic products (-11.1%). Output also fell for non-metallic minerals (-6.0%), motor vehicles and parts (-2.5%), and basic metals (-1.0%). In contrast, growth was seen in other transport equipment (16.4%), refined petroleum and nuclear fuel (7.6%), machinery and equipment (4.5%), chemicals (2.2%), and food and beverages (0.7%). On a monthly basis, industrial output slipped 0.1% after a 0.7% gain in August.

US Dollar Forecast: Pullback Continues as Fed Uncertainty and China Trade Weigh.DXY stalls near 99.50 as soft U.S. jobs data and China's export slump offset Fed hawkishness, keeping the dollar locked in a corrective range.

Fed's Miran: Lots of stablecoin usage would likely lower the neutral rate.Fed's Miran: Lots of stablecoin usage would likely lower the neutral rate

United States Consumer Credit Change above expectations ($10B) in September: Actual ($13.09B).United States Consumer Credit Change above expectations ($10B) in September: Actual ($13.09B)

Costa Rica’s consumer prices fell 0.38% year-on-year in October 2025, after a 1% decline in September, marking the sixth consecutive month of deflation. Prices dropped sharply for information and communication (-6.29%), transport (-2.78%), clothing and footwear (-2.04%), and furniture and household articles (-1.68%). In contrast, costs rose for education (4.12%), rent and utilities (1.13%), and recreation, sports and culture (1.12%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.19%, rebounding from a 0.4% decrease in September.

USD 4-Month Highs into Pullback: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD.I looked at the level in the Tuesday webinar but the 100.215 spot is extremely important, and that played out this week as it held bulls back despite fresh four-month highs, leading to an evening star formation that finished on Thursday, and continuation of that pullback on Friday. There's now a test of support at prior resistance as taken from the 99.40 level in DXY and there's two more spots of support below, at the Fibonacci level of 98.98 and then the swing-low from the FOMC meeting last week at 98.60.

The ongoing US government shutdown, now the longest in history, is likely to extend the halt in US economic data releases. This will leave the spotlight to private data, featuring weekly ADP employment figures and the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. In Europe, data updates will be headlined by the GDP and labor market insights in the UK, which will join the Eurozone in releasing industrial production. In Asia, investors will turn to China's data dump for industrial production, retail sales, property prices, and credit aggregates. Also, Japan will post its fresh GDP estimates. Finally, a slowing earnings season will see results from Cisco, Disney, and Applied Materials in the US while major reports elsewhere include Tencent, Alibaba, Softbank, Sony, Siemens, Munich Re, and Allianz.

Argentina Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY) climbed from previous -4.4% to -0.7% in September.Argentina Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY) climbed from previous -4.4% to -0.7% in September

Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Gains Some Ground Ahead Of The Weekend.Oil traders remain cautious amid oversupply worries.

In Frankfurt, the DAX Index dropped 186 points or 0.78 percent on Friday. Losses were led by Zalando (-8.18%), Scout24 (-5.10%) and Infineon (-3.13%). Offsetting the fall, top gainers were BMW (2.02%), Henkel (1.83%) and Rheinmetall (1.81%).

The FTSE MIB fell 0.3% to close at 42,918 on Friday, tracking global market losses as investors questioned the sustainability of the recent rally in artificial intelligence stocks. STMicroelectronics slipped nearly 2%, remaining pressured by concerns over future AI returns relative to its capital expenditure. Meanwhile, Prysmian fell 4% as investors grew cautious about the durability of its strong profits, which may have been influenced by one-off items. Similarly, Unipol fell 3.8% despite a 54.7% rise in nine-month earnings. Also, Iveco edged lower after Italy approved its sale to Tata Motors, which will divest its defense unit to Leonardo. Leonardo rose 1.8% after reporting a 23.4% jump in new orders as the surge in defense investment by NATO governments supported the European defense sector this year. The day’s standout performer was Banca MPS, which gained 4.4% after third-quarter profit exceeded estimates and the bank raised its 2025 outlook.

Germany's DAX closed about 0.7% down at 23,556 on Friday, the lowest since September 25, extending losses from the previous day. Global sentiment was weighed by concerns over lofty valuations in AI-related stocks, while macroeconomic and monetary uncertainty persisted amid the prolonged US government shutdown. In the meantime, the earnings season continued to be monitored. Zalando led the losses, falling 7.9% in a technical correction following a strong rally in the prior day on upbeat Q3 results. Scout24 followed closely, shedding 4.5%, after delivering its results. By contrast, Rheinmetall (+2.4%) was the top performer, tracking gains in Hensoldt (+4.9%) after the defense electronics group reported a sharp rise in orders in the first nine months of 2025. Shares of automakers such as BMW (+2.2%), Porsche Automobil (+1.7%) and VV (+1.5%) also advanced firmly following reports that China lifted its export ban on Nexperia chips. For the week, the index declined about 1.7%.

In London, the FTSE 100 Index fell 61 points or 0.62 percent on Friday. Leading the losses are Rightmove (-12.15%), International Airlines Group (-10.90%) and Auto Trader (-5.48%). Top gainers were Hikma Pharmaceutical (4.47%), WPP (3.64%) and Diageo (3.04%).

United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count registered at 414 above expectations (413).United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count registered at 414 above expectations (413)

Trump: He is talking with Hungary about meetings with Russian Pres. Putin.As the shutdown is in day 38, the threat for Pres. Trump and the GOP is that suddenly the eye is off the ball and people are noticing.

Silver rose by almost 1% to around $48.5 per ounce on Friday, extending recent gains as weak US data strengthened demand for safe heaven assets and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment dropped to 50.3 in November, the second-lowest reading on record and below the expected 53.2, as Americans became increasingly worried about the potential economic impact of the longest government shutdown in US history. Also, on Thursday, private data showed the US economy shed 153K jobs in October, the highest for that month in 22 years, largely linked to cost-cutting and AI integration. As a result, markets increased bets on a December Fed cut, pricing in about a 70% chance of a 25 bps reduction, up from 62% a day earlier. Meanwhile, broad risk-off sentiment, fueled by sharp losses in US tech stocks amid concerns over inflated AI valuations, added further support.