Fed's Williams: Energy Shock Inflation and Growth Risks “Have Begun to Play Out Already”.New York Fed President John Williams warned that rising energy prices are already feeding into inflation, as the Iran War pushed up costs across the economy. He noted that “developments in the Middle East are driving significant increases in energy prices,” with effects now visible not only in fuel but also in airfares, groceries, and other consumer goods.

Exclusive: India's RBI asks state oil refiners to curb spot dollar buying, sources say.India's ​central bank has urged state-run oil refiners to curb spot dollar purchases and tap a special ‌credit line for their foreign exchange needs, three sources said, reviving measures used earlier in the Ukraine war to ease pressure on the rupee.

Latin America: Diverging central bank paths – BNP Paribas.Latin America: Diverging central bank paths – BNP Paribas

The US Dollar is stalls as the world awaits Ceasefire news – DXY Outlook.US Dollar (DXY) update: The Dollar Index edges higher as Crude Oil halts its downside move, keeping broader markets in anticipation. Even as stock markets push higher independently of Black Gold, oil remains the ultimate barometer for currency traders navigating the potential for a historic Middle East peace resolution.

United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) climbed from previous 0.3% to 0.6% in March.United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) climbed from previous 0.3% to 0.6% in March

USD Index: Bears Take a Breather Above New Multi-Week Low.The dollar edged higher on Thursday as traders booked profits from the recent fall, which accelerated in past three sessions and hit the lowest since late February.

USD/JPY: Intervention risk versus hedge overhang – BNY.USD/JPY: Intervention risk versus hedge overhang – BNY

Risk Appetite Holds Firm Near Highs as ECB Pushback Caps Euro, Aussie Outperforms.Risk sentiment remains firm, but momentum is no longer accelerating. Markets are holding near recent highs as optimism over Middle East de-escalation continues to underpin sentiment, with US futures pointing to another strong open and the potential for fresh record highs in the S&P 500.

Oil: Futures discount tightening physical market – ING.Oil: Futures discount tightening physical market – ING

United States Industrial Production (MoM) below forecasts (0.1%) in March: Actual (-0.5%).United States Industrial Production (MoM) below forecasts (0.1%) in March: Actual (-0.5%)

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Rebounds from Retracement Zone, Eyes Countertrend Rally.DXY trades weak near key retracement zone as easing tensions weigh. Mixed yields and Fed uncertainty leave room for a short-term countertrend rally.

Natural Gas Price Analysis – Natural Gas Continues to Bump Along the Bottom.The natural gas markets are quiet on Thursday, as we are looking for some reason to get going here.

US Initial Unemployment Claims Fall to 207k as Labor Market Remains Tight.US initial jobless claims fell by -11k to 207k in the week ending April 10, coming in below expectations of 215k and signaling continued strength in the labor market. The 4-week moving average edged up slightly to 209,750, but remains consistent with a low level of layoffs overall.

Crude Oil Price Analysis – Oil Sits Still for Once.The crude oil markets continue to see a bit of noise in general, but so far, the Thursday session is quiet for once.

US April Philly Fed business index +26.7 vs +10.0 expected.The survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all moved higher this month. However, the employment index fell and turned negative, suggesting overall declines in employment.

EUR/CHF, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP Forecasts – Euro on the Move.Euro continues to look for a reason to rally against many currencies on Thursday, as we are starting to see more risk appetite enter the markets in general.

investingLive European markets wrap: No rocking the boat just yet.It was another tepid session for the most part as markets are still waiting for more concrete positive developments from the US-Iran conflict.

ECB Accounts: Middle East risks keep ECB cautious on rates, inflation spillovers.ECB Accounts: Middle East risks keep ECB cautious on rates, inflation spillovers

Australian Dollar outperforms due to risk-on mood.Australian Dollar outperforms due to risk-on mood

ECB Minutes Signal Willingness to Tolerate Temporary Inflation Deviations.ECB's March meeting minutes reinforce a cautious, data-dependent stance, with policymakers signaling no urgency to respond to the latest energy-driven inflation shock. The Governing Council emphasized that it would “closely monitor the situation,” with decisions guided by incoming data to ensure inflation returns to target in a “timely and sustainable manner.

ECB: Cautious as inflation edges higher – BNY.ECB: Cautious as inflation edges higher – BNY

USD: Risk rally questions deeper downside – ING.USD: Risk rally questions deeper downside – ING

EUR/JPY edges lower as higher Eurozone inflation shifts focus to ECB signals.EUR/JPY edges lower as higher Eurozone inflation shifts focus to ECB signals

AUD: Labor data steady as RBA watches CPI – TD Securities.AUD: Labor data steady as RBA watches CPI – TD Securities

USD: Recovery narrative supports range trading – BBH.USD: Recovery narrative supports range trading – BBH

Dollar is Retreating.Over the past two weeks, the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level since early March, giving back almost all the gains made since the start of the armed conflict in the Middle East. Talks with Iran are set to resume in the coming days.

USD/JPY: Verbal support grows as hike delayed – MUFG.USD/JPY: Verbal support grows as hike delayed – MUFG

Greenback Recovers Despite New Threats on the Fed and Stronger UK and Chinese GDP.(A business trip will disrupt the daily commentary tomorrow and next week, but the weekly analysis will be posted here on April 18 and the May monthly note will drop on April 25.  Thank you for your patience, and good luck).

U.S. Dollar Near Key Support as Middle East Risk Shifts Market Mood.Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst, examines the U.S. dollar as it approaches a critical support zone, with shifting sentiment driven by Middle East negotiations and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions. She outlines the key technical levels shaping the DXY outlook and explains how geopolitical developments and inflation risks could influence the next move ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Top officials have offered Putin ideas for economic growth after contraction, Kremlin says.Russia's top economic officials have made proposals to President Vladimir ​Putin about how to kick-start the economy after he ‌scolded them for a contraction in the first two months of the year, the Kremlin said on Thursday.