U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As Traders Bet On Hawkish Fed: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.The American currency gains ground as traders focus on rising Treasury yields.

Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Breakout Looms as Intervention Risk Rises.USD/JPY is consolidating in a tight range after rebounding sharply from key support earlier this month, with price action stabilizing just below major resistance near the yearly highs. The near-term technical outlook remains constructive, but traders are once again approaching levels that previously triggered Japanese intervention.

Fed's Warsh says he will lead reform at the Fed.Fed's Warsh says he will lead reform at the Fed

Australian Dollar: Rate repricing weighs against Japanese Yen – Rabobank.Australian Dollar: Rate repricing weighs against Japanese Yen – Rabobank

Japanese Yen weakens as stronger US Dollar and elevated energy prices weigh on sentiment.Japanese Yen weakens as stronger US Dollar and elevated energy prices weigh on sentiment

US Dollar Forecast: FOMC Chairman Warsh Sworn In - Good Luck Kevin!.As President Trump's handpicked successor to Jerome Powell, Warsh will undoubtedly face political pressure to cut interest rates; the problem is, from a monetary policy perspective, it's near impossible to make a coherent case for cutting interest rates in the current macroeconomic climate. Defying expectations, the unemployment rate has remained relatively low, and the most recent NFIB Small Business Optimism survey suggests that, if anything, the US labor market is reaccelerating:

Natural Gas Weekly Price Analysis – Natural Gas Continues to See Overhang.Natural gas has had a tough week again, as we continue to trade in one of the weakest times of year. Until we see hotter temperatures return to the United States, it is likely that we are more “fade the rally” at the moment.

Canadian Dollar weakens as US-Iran uncertainty and hawkish Fed bets support Greenback.Canadian Dollar weakens as US-Iran uncertainty and hawkish Fed bets support Greenback

Canada: Growth returns with domestic support – RBC.Canada: Growth returns with domestic support – RBC

US Dollar: Supported into holiday as risk stays contained – Scotiabank.US Dollar: Supported into holiday as risk stays contained – Scotiabank

Japanese Yen: Tokyo CPI and intervention data watched – Deutsche Bank.Japanese Yen: Tokyo CPI and intervention data watched – Deutsche Bank

Crude Oil –22.05.2026.Crude Oil managed to pass above the resistance of 96.90 which could push for an advance towards the target of 106.00-108.35. Prices are facing support around 93.90 where as long as the market holds above it, more advance will be expected.

Crude oil outlook: middle east headlines keep traders on edge.At around lunchtime London time, we saw oil prices take a dump after Al Arabiya (again) reported that Pakistani army chief was on his way to Tehran. This was yet another daily optimistic headline emerging just ahead of the open on Wall Street.

Crude Oil Price Analysis – Oil Remains Choppy on Friday.The oil markets continue to be noisy, as we are trying to sort out the supply situation in the Middle East. With this, traders are a bit hesitant to get aggressive, especially heading into a weekend where any announcement could come out.

USD/JPY –22.05.2026.As we see over the previous chart, the pair managed to rebound from support 155.00-60 whilst closing to the resistance at 159.40. USDJPY still has the chance for a further advance as this zone could control the market movement between support 155.00 and resistance 160.20-60.

Natural Gas Price Analysis – Natural Gas Continues to Drift Sideways.Natural gas continues to see downward pressure overall, but on Friday is a bit more sideways than anything else. The seasonal cycle continues to be the main driver.

Weekly Focus – The Fed on Course for Rate Hikes.This week we adjusted our Fed call and expect the next policy changes to be hikes rather than cuts, see Fed update. We look for 25bp rate hikes in December 2026 and March 2027.

UMich May final consumer sentiment 44.8 vs 48.2 expected.UMich notes: "Consumer sentiment fell for the third straight month as supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to boost gasoline prices. Sentiment is now just below the previous historical trough seen in June 2022.

Eurozone: Weak PMIs and higher inflation forecasts – Rabobank.Eurozone: Weak PMIs and higher inflation forecasts – Rabobank

USD/JPY trades close to 160.00 after Japan's CPI – More interventions required? – FX Analysis.USD/JPY Technical Analysis: The Japanese Yen faces fresh capitulation risks as Japan's April core CPI drops to a dovish 1.4%, well below the Bank of Japan's 2% target. Driven by domestic fuel subsidies masking Middle East oil shocks, the stark policy divergence with a hawkish Federal Reserve has pushed USD/JPY perilously close to the historic 160.00 handle.

Canada: Retail Sales Rise in March, but Higher Prices Eat into Volumes.Retail sales rose 0.9% month-on-month (m/m) in March, ahead of the 0.6% gain reported in the advanced estimate. In volume terms, sales declined 0.7% m/m, showing higher prices eating into activity.

Reuters:Qatar send negotiating team to Tehran to help secure a end of war deal.Reuters is reporting: Qatar send negotiating team to Tehran to help secure a end of war deal Pakistan Army chief warns that the visit to Tehran does not mean a deal is within reach. The price of crude oil has moved to a low of $95.46.

USD/JPY: Second Consecutive Week Closes Higher.USD/JPY rose to 159.04 at the end of the week, marking the yen's second consecutive weekly decline. The Japanese currency came under pressure after weaker inflation data reduced expectations of imminent Bank of Japan policy tightening.

Japanese Yen: Negative bias against US Dollar fading – UOB.Japanese Yen: Negative bias against US Dollar fading – UOB

Swiss Franc: ECB doubts tilt risks higher against Euro – ING.Swiss Franc: ECB doubts tilt risks higher against Euro – ING

Markets Frozen as Washington and Tehran Wait for the Other Side to Blink.Global financial markets remain trapped in a tense but directionless pattern as investors struggle to price a US-Iran conflict that is neither escalating into full confrontation nor moving convincingly toward resolution. Brent crude continues hovering near USD 105 after another volatile week, while US 10-year Treasury yields remain comfortably above 4.5%.

Indian Rupee: RBI step up as nears record low against US Dollar – DBS.Indian Rupee: RBI step up as nears record low against US Dollar – DBS

Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM) climbed from previous -1.6% to 0.4% in March.Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM) climbed from previous -1.6% to 0.4% in March

Canada Retail Sales Jump on Higher Fuel Prices, Underlying Demand Still Soft.Canada retail sales rose a stronger-than-expected 0.9% mom in March to CAD 72.7B, beating expectations of a 0.5% increase. The headline gain was driven largely by gasoline stations and fuel vendors, where sales surged 12.4% during the month as higher oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict pushed fuel costs sharply higher.

Canada retail sales for March 0.9% vs 0.6% estimate.*This unofficial estimate was calculated based on responses received from 52.1% of companies surveyed. The average final response rate for the survey over the previous 12 months was 88.3%.