USD/JPY: BOJ stands pat as language firms and Ueda looms.The Bank of Japan held policy steady in January, voting 8–1 to keep the overnight call rate around 0.75%, a decision fully expected by markets and economists. Takata was the sole dissenter, arguing that the price stability target had largely been achieved and that risks to prices were skewed to the upside, but with no support from other board members, the outcome was not read as hawkish.

investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: BoJ on hold, revised inflation forecasts higher.New Zealand inflation was the first key regional driver, with Q4 CPI rising 0.6% q/q and lifting annual inflation to 3.1%, pushing it above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 1–3% target band. The increase was driven by domestic cost pressures, with non-tradeable inflation at 3.5%, reinforcing expectations the RBNZ will remain on hold.

China likely to lower 2026 growth target as global slowdown weighs.China is expected to set a more conservative official economic growth target for 2026, signalling a growing acceptance in Beijing that external headwinds and domestic structural challenges are limiting the scope for rapid expansion. According to reporting by the South China Morning Post, policymakers are likely to aim for growth of between 4.5% and 5%, down from the 5% target achieved in 2025.

EUR/JPY holds positive ground above 186.00 as BoJ keeps benchmark rate unchanged.EUR/JPY holds positive ground above 186.00 as BoJ keeps benchmark rate unchanged

GBP/JPY trades firmly near multi-year high while BoJ holds interest rates steady at 0.75%.GBP/JPY trades firmly near multi-year high while BoJ holds interest rates steady at 0.75%

Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (0.75%).Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (0.75%)

Rupee vulnerable to new all-time low on skewed flows, building bearish outlook.The Indian rupee is vulnerable to slipping to a fresh all-time low on Friday, with expectations of further losses reinforcing skewed flows and lifting hedging demand.

RBNZ's Breman vows to return inflation to the midpoint.RBNZ's Breman vows to return inflation to the midpoint

U.S. Core Inflation Remains at 2.8% in November; USD Reaction Limited Amid Improving Risk Sentiment.U.S. inflation came in at 2.8% as forecast, but dollar reaction stayed subdued as Trump's tariff pullback boosted market risk appetite.

Australian Dollar strengthens following PMI data.Australian Dollar strengthens following PMI data

Kiwi Stays Afloat As New Zealand Inflation Cooled to 0.6% in Q4 2025.New Zealand's consumer price inflation dipped from 1.0% to 0.6% on a quarterly basis in Q4 2025, bringing the annual rate to 3.1%. How did NZD pairs react?

Dollar set for worst week in a year, yen pressured ahead of BOJ.The U.S. dollar was poised for its biggest weekly drop in a year after President Donald Trump's Greenland threats and abrupt reversal unnerved investors, while the yen wobbled near one-week lows ahead of the Bank of Japan policy decision later on Friday.

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Faces Volatility Ahead of BoJ Decision.USD/JPY traders focus on the BoJ outlook, cooling inflation, and firm Services PMI as shifting rate expectations drive volatility and test key technical levels.

Japan PMI hits 17-month high as manufacturing returns to growth.Japan's private sector recorded its strongest expansion in nearly a year and a half at the start of 2026, according to the latest flash PMI data from S&P Global, pointing to broad-based momentum across services and a long-awaited return to growth in manufacturing.

Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI up to 53.4 in January from previous 51.6.Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI up to 53.4 in January from previous 51.6

Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI up to 51.5 in January from previous 50.Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI up to 51.5 in January from previous 50

UK consumer confidence ticks higher as personal finance outlook improves.UK consumer confidence improved modestly in January, reaching its strongest level in several months as households became more optimistic about their own financial prospects, even as concerns about the broader economy remained entrenched. According to the latest survey from GfK, the headline consumer confidence index rose one point to -16, marking the highest reading since August 2024 and matching economists' expectations.

USD/JPY posts modest gains to near 158.50 ahead of BoJ rate decision.USD/JPY posts modest gains to near 158.50 ahead of BoJ rate decision

EU closes in on Ukraine recovery deal, boosts Arctic security focus: EU Pres von der Leyen.The EU signalled progress on a Ukraine recovery framework while flagging greater Arctic security investment and readiness for potential trade tensions.

Japan December 2025 Headline CPI 2.1% y/y (prior 2.9%).Data only on this post. I'll post more detail separately.

Japan's National CPI climbs 2.1% YoY in December, Core CPI rises as expected.Japan's National CPI climbs 2.1% YoY in December, Core CPI rises as expected

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 2.9% to 2.1% in December.Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 2.9% to 2.1% in December

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Surges to weekly high as Pound strengthens.GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Surges to weekly high as Pound strengthens

Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rises to 52.4 in January.Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rises to 52.4 in January

Australia PMI January jump. Business activity accelerates..Australia's private-sector activity accelerated sharply at the start of 2026, with the latest flash PMI data pointing to broad-based momentum across both manufacturing and services. The headline S&P Global Flash Australia Composite PMI rose to 55.5 in January from 51.0 in December, marking a sixteenth consecutive month of expansion and the strongest reading since April 2022, matched only by August 2025.

New Zealand's CPI inflation rises to 3.1% YoY in Q4, vs 3.0% expected.New Zealand's CPI inflation rises to 3.1% YoY in Q4, vs 3.0% expected

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Support Test Sets Up Potential Breakout.Crude oil is testing key support after a pullback, with bullish reversal signals still intact as price action sets up a potential continuation higher.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Rally Stalls at Major Resistance.Natural gas pulled back from 200-day resistance, but rising short-term averages and prior support suggest the broader recovery attempt remains intact following consolidation.

New Zealand Q4 CPI 0.6% q/q (expected 0.5%, prior 1.0%) & 3.1% y/y (expected 3%, prior 3%).Data only on this post. I'll post more detail separately.

BOJ set to hold rates steady as election, yield spike cloud outlook.The Bank of Japan is set to keep interest rates steady on Friday and signal cautious optimism that the economy will maintain a moderate recovery that would justify raising still-low borrowing costs further.