NZ Inflation Holds at 3.1% as Non-Tradables Stay Firm, Energy Pressures Build.New Zealand's CPI held steady at 3.1% yoy in Q1, above expectations of 2.9% and marking the highest level since Q2 2024, keeping it above the RBNZ's 1–3% target band for a second straight quarter. On a quarterly basis, CPI rose 0.9% qoq, slightly above forecasts, suggesting underlying pressures remain persistent despite expectations for easing earlier in the year.

China shows resilience to energy shock but weak demand limits growth outlook, Fitch says.Fitch says China remains resilient to global energy shocks but weak consumer demand is limiting growth, with fiscal deficits staying elevated and risks rising if energy disruptions hit trade and manufacturing.

WTI edges higher to near $86.00 on uncertainty over US-Iran talks.WTI edges higher to near $86.00 on uncertainty over US-Iran talks

New Zealand Business Confidence Slumps as Conflict Weighs, Inflation Pressures Rise, RBNZ July Hike Expected.New Zealand business confidence deteriorated sharply in the March quarter, with the NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion showing the general business situation dropping from +39 to +1. The survey highlights how the US–Israel conflict with Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, have quickly eroded sentiment despite earlier signs of recovery.

Canadian Dollar steadies as higher oil prices offset US Dollar gains.Canadian Dollar steadies as higher oil prices offset US Dollar gains

Dollar subdued as markets eye ceasefire talks; yen pressured by BOJ delay.The dollar and yen were under pressure on Tuesday, with ​investors poised to buy riskier currencies and hoping for a U.S.-Iran deal to reopen ‌Gulf shipping, while a sticky inflation reading lifted the New Zealand dollar.

First impressions: NZ Consumer Price Inflation, March quarter 2026.NZ consumer prices were up 0.9% in Q1, with annual inflation unchanged at 3.1% The result was stronger than expected with firm underlying inflation.

First Impressions: NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, March quarter 2026.Business confidence has unsurprisingly taken a knock since the Iran war kicked off at the end of February. Indeed, given the fast-moving situation, the headline results of the Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion understate the degree of the shock.

WTI Oil – Bearish Bias Below $90 Barrier.WTI oil opened $5 higher and gained over 6% at the start of the week, as “Trump Indicator” (one of key fundamental market drivers nowadays) changed direction during the weekend on fresh tensions over Strait of Hormuz, which was opened on Friday and closed again shortly after.

Australian Dollar struggles as safe-haven demand lifts US Dollar.Australian Dollar struggles as safe-haven demand lifts US Dollar

Japanese Yen weakens on Hormuz risks; USD/JPY climbs to 159.00 despite subdued USD demand.Japanese Yen weakens on Hormuz risks; USD/JPY climbs to 159.00 despite subdued USD demand

China signal push to upgrade Switzerland FTA, expanding trade to services, digital sectors.China signalled readiness to advance talks on upgrading its Switzerland FTA, aiming to expand cooperation into services, digital trade and investment, reinforcing support for open trade amid global protectionist pressures.

New Zealand's CPI inflation steadies at 3.1% YoY in Q1, vs 2.9% expected.New Zealand's CPI inflation steadies at 3.1% YoY in Q1, vs 2.9% expected

New Zealand Q1 2026 inflation: CPI q/q 0.9% (expected 0.8%) CPI 3.1% y/y (expected 2.9%).This is just a data post. I'll have more to come on this separately, details and implications.

New Zealand Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 3.1%, above forecasts (2.9%) in 1Q.New Zealand Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 3.1%, above forecasts (2.9%) in 1Q

NZ business confidence slumps as Hormuz disruptions weigh on outlook and demand.NZ business confidence fell sharply in Q1 as Hormuz disruptions lifted uncertainty. Activity held steady but hiring and investment weakened.

New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ): -4% (1Q) vs previous 48%.New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ): -4% (1Q) vs previous 48%

China: Energy resilience under Hormuz shock – Commerzbank.China: Energy resilience under Hormuz shock – Commerzbank

USD/JPY holds below 159.00 as Iran ceasefire edges toward Wednesday deadline.USD/JPY holds below 159.00 as Iran ceasefire edges toward Wednesday deadline

FX Today: Markets focus on Iran talks as tensions undermine the Dollar.FX Today: Markets focus on Iran talks as tensions undermine the Dollar

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Breakdown Risk Builds at Support.Natural gas tests a key support zone at $2.72 as converging trendlines and moving averages set up a potential directional breakout or breakdown in coming sessions.

Economic and event calendar in Asia Tuesday, April 21, 2026. New Zealand inflation data..Westpac notes the Q1 NZIER Survey of Business Opinion points to a fragile recovery backdrop, with headline confidence improving modestly but underlying activity still soft. Firms reported a slight lift in expected own activity, suggesting conditions may be stabilising after a weak 2025, though current demand indicators remain subdued.

Malaysia: Cautious trade outlook with export risks – UOB.Malaysia: Cautious trade outlook with export risks – UOB

Pound-to-Euro Forecast: GBP Rangebound as Data Fails to Inspire.The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate traded without clear direction at the start of the week, as a lack of strong catalysts and political uncertainty in the UK kept Sterling subdued. Latest — Exchange Rates:Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR): 1.14872 (+0.02%)Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.35403 (+0.43%)Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.17873.

China: Slowing growth with modest policy support – BNP Paribas.China: Slowing growth with modest policy support – BNP Paribas

Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) below expectations ($1010M) in March: Actual ($2M).Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) below expectations ($1010M) in March: Actual ($2M)

ECB waits for signals from the economy. War with Iran raises risks to inflation and growth in the euro area.The ECB is monitoring the economic impact of the Iran conflict, warning that higher energy prices could weaken euro area growth and increase inflation risks.

Asian FX: Geopolitics drives setback and two-way trade – OCBC.Asian FX: Geopolitics drives setback and two-way trade – OCBC

USD/JPY dips as Dollar eases, Oil strength limits Yen gains.USD/JPY dips as Dollar eases, Oil strength limits Yen gains

British Pound Price Action Setups: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP.It was a couple of weeks ago that I looked at the possibility of outperformance in the British Pound after the currency lagged behind the Euro over the prior three weeks. The key observation was that EUR/USD was holding higher-lows through March while GBP/USD was grinding down to lower-lows, although sellers weren't making much significant headway.