Profits earned by China's industrial firms rose by 3.5% yoy to CNY 3,511.03 billion in the first six months of 2024, after a 3.4% increase in the prior period. The latest figures came amid a fragile economic recovery in the face of sluggish domestic demand, deflation risks, and a persistent property weakness. Profits in state-owned enterprises added 0.3% after falling 2.4% in January while those in the private sector continued to grow (6.8% vs 7.6%). Profits grew for non-ferrous metal smelting (78.2%), heat production (27.2%), computer, communications (24.0%), textile (19.3%), agricultural, food processing (19.2%), cars (10.7%), oil and natural gas (7.5%), general equipment (3.6%), and chemicals (2.3%). By contrast, profits fell for non-metallic minerals (-49.9%), coal mining (-24.8%), machinery & equipment (-8.0%), and special equipment manufacturing (-4.2%). Meantime, petroleum and other fuel turned from profits to losses.

In New York, the Dow Jones Index rose 654 points or 1.64 percent on Friday. Leading the gains are 3M (23.74%), Salesforce (2.35%) and American Express (2.21%).

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.9% to close at 22,814 on Friday, breaking a three-day losing streak and resulting in a weekly advance of 0.5%, driven by dovish outlooks for North American central banks, which offset pressure from lower commodity prices affecting heavyweight companies within the TSX. The prospect of looser borrowing conditions created an environment for increased credit demand and reduced delinquency risks, benefiting major banks such as RBC, TD Bank, BMO, and Scotiabank, all of which rose by over 0.5%. Similarly, Brookfield added 2.1% to close at a record high of CAD 65.38, contributing to the financial sector’s average gain of 1%. The technology sector also supported the index's rise, with heavyweight Shopify jumping 0.9% and Constellation Software increasing by 2.7%. Meanwhile, despite a hotter-than-expected Core PCE Prices report in the US, markets remain fully priced in for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

The S&P 500 closed 1.1% higher on Friday, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1%, and the Dow surged 654 points. Market sentiment was buoyed by new data suggesting easing inflation, reinforcing expectations for a potential interest rate cut in September. The PCE reading, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, aligned with expectations, though the core rate increased by 0.2%, slightly above the forecast of 0.1%. All sectors posted gains, led by industrials as 3M soared 23.1%, marking its best day since at least 1972. Deckers Outdoor jumped 6.5% on upbeat quarterly results, while Coursera surged 44.8% following an 11% increase in second-quarter revenue. In contrast, DexCom plunged 40% after lowering its fiscal-year sales forecast. For the week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined 1.5% and 3.8%, respectively, while the Dow added 0.7%. Investors are preparing for next week's quarterly earnings reports from four of the Magnificent Seven tech giants: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.

US stocks rallied in afternoon trading, with the S&P 500 up 1.3%, the Nasdaq 100 rising 1.2%, and the Dow soaring over 700 points. Investors reacted positively to new data indicating easing inflation, reinforcing expectations for a September interest-rate reduction. The PCE reading, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, met expectations, though the core rate rose 0.2%, slightly above the forecast of 0.1%. All sectors posted gains, led by industrials, with GE Aerospace climbing 3% and 3M soaring about 19%, marking its best day since at least 1972. Deckers Outdoor jumped 8% after surpassing first-quarter earnings and revenue estimates. Coursera surged 42% following an 11% increase in second-quarter revenue. Nvidia rose 1.8%, despite recent declines due to a rotation out of big tech stocks. Conversely, DexCom plummeted 42% after lowering its fiscal-year sales forecast. For the week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are set to drop 1.3% and 3.1%, respectively, while the Dow is up 0.8%.

The CAC 40 rose 1.2% to close at 7,518 on Friday, rebounding from a six-month low reached in the previous session as investors assessed a fresh wave of corporate results. Essilor led the gainers, surging 7.4% after reporting a 5.2% increase in Q2 revenue to EUR 13.29 billion, driven by strong performance in the EMEA region. Hermès shares climbed 3.4% following a 13% rise in Q2 sales to EUR 3.7 billion, surpassing forecasts and defying a gloomy trend for the luxury sector set by LVMH and Kering. Dassault Systèmes recorded a 3.6% gain after posting year-on-year increases in H1 net income and revenue. Vinci shares rose 3.5% despite a decline in H1 net income due to increased total revenue. Conversely, Capgemini shares fell nearly 2.5% after the IT group downgraded its revenue growth forecast for the year amid downturns in the automotive and aerospace sectors. Despite Friday's gains, the CAC 40 posted a 0.2% decline for the week, marking its second consecutive week of losses.

In Frankfurt, the DAX Index gained 123 points or 0.67 percent on Friday. Gains were led by Sartorius (6.96%), Rheinmetall (3.78%) and Puma (3.49%). Biggest losers were BASF (-2.31%), Fresenius Medical Care (-1.51%) and Commerzbank (-1.25%).

In Paris, the CAC 40 Index went up by 90 points or 1.22 percent on Friday. Top gainers were Essilor (7.57%), Saint-Gobain (4.32%) and Hermes International (4.21%).

The FTSE 100 gained 1.2% on Friday, rising over 1.5% for the week, with all major stocks increasing. AstraZeneca and Unilever both rose over 1%, while Shell and BP gained 0.8% and 0.3% ahead of next week's earnings. HSBC Holdings, also reporting next week, added over 0.5%. Other banks like Barclays and Virgin Money will also report. Miners Glencore (0.4%), Rio Tinto (1.2%), and Fresnillo (-1.2%) are set to release earnings too. The airline industry will see updates from Wizz Air, IAG, and Rolls Royce. Additional reports will come from GSK, Diageo, Next, and Greggs. NatWest surged 6.5% despite a smaller-than-expected 16% fall in H1 pre-tax profit. Meanwhile, investors await the Bank of England’s interest rate decision on Thursday.

In London, the FTSE 100 Index rose 101 points or 1.24 percent on Friday. Leading the gains are Natwest (5.47%), Anglo American (5.08%) and Intertek (3.87%).

In the United States, key highlights will include the Fed's interest rate decision and the nonfarm payrolls report. Other important events will feature JOLTs job openings, CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI, factory orders, S&P Case-Shiller House Price Index, pending home sales, and the employment cost index. Earnings season will enter one of the busiest weeks, with megacaps Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon taking center stage. Globally, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and Central Bank of Brazil will provide updates on their monetary policy. Inflation rates will be released for Spain, Germany, Australia, Netherlands, France, Poland, the Euro Area, Italy, South Korea, and Switzerland. Additionally, GDP growth rates will be announced for France, Spain, Germany, Italy, the Euro Area, and Mexico. In China, manufacturing and services PMIs will be closely watched. Manufacturing PMIs will also be published for South Korea, Russia, Spain, Italy, and Canada.

Canada's government budget surplus narrowed to CAD 1.1 billion in May 2024, down from CAD 3.35 billion in the same month of the previous year. During the first twelve months of the 2023/24 fiscal year (June-May), the country recorded a deficit of CAD 3.89 billion, a significant shift from the CAD 1.5 billion surplus reported in the same period a year earlier. Program expenses surged by 15.9%, excluding net actuarial losses, while public debt charges rose by 33.8% due to higher interest rates. Conversely, government revenues grew by 8.9%, driven by increases in personal income tax revenue, goods and services tax, and other non-tax revenues.

The DAX managed to extend gains on Friday afternoon, adding about 0.5% to the 18390 level, and tracking its European peers higher. It follows big falls in each of the previous two sessions, with investors continuing to digest fresh corporate results. On the corporate front, Sartorius (7.2%), Rheinmetall (3.6%) and Merck (2.4%) outperformed. Stocks of Mercedes-Benz pared early losses to trade around the flatline, after touching January-lows of €61.7 early in the session, as the automaker recorded a 27% drop in car earnings and narrowed its annual profit margin forecast. ThyssenKrupp on the other hand, sank around 8% after cutting its 2024 guidance. On the week, the DAX is up nearly 0.8%.

Stocks in Europe extended gains and closed higher on Friday, rebounding from a two-day slump, with the STOXX 50 adding 1% and the STOXX 600 rising 0.8%, as earnings reports lifted investors' mood. Meanwhile, the PCE report for the US did little to change bets the Fed will cut interest rates in September. On the corporate front, Hermes rose 3.6% after reporting a better-than-expected revenue growth and Saint-Gobain added 4.4%, with the company recording sales growth in North America and record operating margin. Also, EssilorLuxottica soared almost 8% after the company said Meta might take a stake in the company. Meanwhile, stocks of Mercedes-Benz pared early losses to trade around the flatline, after touching January-lows of €61.7 early in the session, as the automaker recorded a 27% drop in car earnings and narrowed its annual profit margin forecast. ThyssenKrupp sank around 8% after cutting its 2024 guidance. On the week, both the STOXX 50 and the STOXX 600 are little changed.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised higher to 66.4 in July 2024 from a preliminary reading of 66, remaining the lowest in eight months. The gauge for expectations was revised up to 68.8 from 67.2 while the current conditions subindex was revised lower to 62.7 from 64.1. Inflation expectations for the year-ahead decreased to 2.9% from 3%, as earlier reported, and the five-year inflation outlook was steady at 3%, above preliminary estimates of 2.9%.

The year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States fell for the second straight month to 2.9% in July 2024, the lowest since March, from 3% in June, and aligning with the preliminary data, the University of Michigan Consumer Survey showed. On the other hand, the five-year outlook was revised higher to 3% from a preliminary of 2.9%, the same as in each of the previous three months.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose by 0.7% to surpass the 22,750 level on Friday, breaking a three-day losing streak and positioning the Toronto exchange for a weekly advance of approximately 0.3%, driven by dovish outlooks for North American central banks that helped offset pressure from lower commodity prices for heavyweight companies in the TSX. The prospect of looser borrowing conditions set the stage for increased credit demand and reduced delinquency risks, benefiting major banks such as RBC, TD Bank, BMO, and Scotiabank, all of which rose by over 0.6%. Similarly, Brookfield and Manulife each gained more than 1%, with Brookfield trading at a record high of CAD 64.8. The technology sector also contributed to the index's growth, with heavyweight Shopify jumping nearly 3% and Constellation Software increasing by 1.1%. Meanwhile, despite a hotter-than-expected Core PCE Prices in the U.S., markets remain fully priced in for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

GB100 increased to a 4-week high of 8280.00 Index Points. Over the past 4 weeks, United Kingdom Stock Market Index (GB100) gained 1.19%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 7.6%.

In New York, the Dow Jones Index is gaining 509 points or 1.27 percent on Friday. Leading the gains are 3M (16.21%), Salesforce (4.96%) and Home Depot (2.92%).

Stocks in the US were sharply higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 adding 0.7%, the Nasdaq gaining 0.6% and the Dow Jones rising over 430 points, as the last PCE report reinforced bets the Fed will cut interest rates in September. The headline PCE price index came in line with expectations but the core rate rose 0.2%, slightly higher than forecasts of 0.1%. Also, spending growth eased to 0.3% as anticipated but income went up 0.2%, much less than forecasts of 0.4%. All sectors were in the green but industrials, real estate and tech were the top performers. Meanwhile, the earnings season continues with 3M soaring more than 13% after the company beat second-quarter earnings forecasts and raised its full-year outlook. On the week however, the three major averages are sharply down so far, with the S&P 500 sinking 1.9%, the Nasdaq losing nearly 3.1% and the Dow declining about 0.9% after disappointing results from Alphabet and Tesla and a broader rotation into small caps.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to the 4.23% mark on Friday as markets assessed US consumption and income data at a narrower range while continuing to gauge the impact that it may have on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Fresh data showed that personal income and spending rose at a mild pace in June. Additionally, core PCE prices rose faster than markets expected, but the lack of a more aggressive surprise maintained bets that the Fed is due to hold rates unchanged next week before delivering rate cuts in every decision for the remainder of the year, totaling 75bps in cuts. June’s report echoed key results from the second quarter unveiled this week, including a much higher-than-expected GDP growth, to underscore that the US economy remains strong and resilient to restrictive interest rates, aligning with the view that the Fed will achieve a soft landing as prices and labor market strength moderate.

Wholesale sales in Canada declined by 0.6% month-over-month in May 2024, following a 0.8% decline in May, preliminary estimates showed. The fall was driven by lower sales of motor vehicle, motor vehicle parts & accessories and food, beverage & tobacco.

The dollar fell slightly to around 104.3 on Friday, as traders digest the latest PCE report. The headline PCE price index came in line with expectations but the core rate rose 0.2%, slightly higher than forecasts of 0.1%. Also, spending growth eased to 0.3% as anticipated but income went up 0.2%, much less than forecasts of 0.4%. The odds for a rate cut by the Fed in September remained at 100%. On Thursday, a preliminary reading showed that the US economy expanded faster-than-expected at 2.8% in the second quarter, led by an acceleration in consumer demand, but remaining below the 2021-2023 average of 3.1%. Price pressure also eased last quarter, while the latest initial jobless claims were roughly in line with forecasts. The dollar depreciated slightly against all major currencies.

US personal income rose by 0.2% from the previous month to $23.948 trillion in June of 2024, slowing from a downwardly revised 0.4% increase in the previous month and below market forecasts of a 0.4% rise. Compensation of employees rose by 0.3%, down from a 0.6% increase in the previous month, driven by lower growth in wages and salaries (0.3% vs 0.6% in May) and supplements to wages and salaries (0.3% vs 0.4%). Meanwhile, personal income receipts from assets grew by 0.1%, slowing from a 0.4% growth in the previous month, with interest income at 0.3% growth, matching the previous month rate, while dividends income witnessed no growth, in contrast to 0.5% growth in the previous month. Additionally, personal current transfer maintained the same growth rate as the prior period at 0.3%. Moreover, contributions for government social insurance rose by 0.3%, down from 0.6% increase in May.

Stock futures in the US held sharply higher on Friday, with contracts on the S&P 500 adding 0.9%, the Nasdaq gaining 1% and the Dow Jones rising over 200 points. The core PCE price index exceeded expectations, rising 0.2% from the previous month and hitting a 2.6% annual change, the same as in May and above expectations of 2.5%. Another report showed personal spending up 0.3%, as expected, while personal income saw lower growth than anticipated. The market is pricing in a 100% chance of a Fed interest rate cut in September. Meanwhile, the earnings season continues with 3M soaring almost 6% in premarket trading after the company beat second-quarter earnings forecasts and raised its full-year outlook. On the week however, the three major averages are sharply down so far, with the S&P 500 sinking 1.9%, the Nasdaq losing nearly 3.1% and the Dow declining about 0.9% after disappointing results from Alphabet and Tesla and a broader rotation into small caps.

Personal spending in the United States increased 0.3% from the previous month in June 2024, in line with market expectations, and following an upwardly revised 0.4% rise in the previous month. The $57.6 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in June reflected an increase of $53.1 billion in spending for services and an increase of $4.5 billion in spending for goods. Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were other services (led by international travel) and housing and utilities (led by housing). Within goods, the main contributors were other nondurable goods (led by pharmaceutical and other medical products) and recreational goods and vehicles (led by information processing equipment), which were partly offset by decreases in motor vehicles and parts (led by new motor vehicles) and gasoline and other energy goods. When considering real consumption expenditure, spending went up by 0.2% from the previous month.

The personal consumption expenditure price index in the US edged up 0.1% month-over-month in June 2024, following a flat reading in May, in line with forecasts. Prices for services increased 0.2% and cost of goods decreased 0.2%. Meanwhile, the core index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2%, higher than 0.1% in May and above forecasts of 0.1%. Separately, food prices increased 0.1% and energy prices decreased 2.1%. Finally, the annual PCE rate decreased to 2.5% from 2.6% as expected, but the annual core PCE inflation steadied at 2.6%, failing to decrease to the expected 2.5%.

The US core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure underlying inflation, rose by 0.2% from the previous month in June of 2024, above market expectations of a 0.1% increase. It marked an acceleration from the 0.1% increase in the prior month, which was the softest increase since November of 2023. Meanwhile, the headline gauge rose by 0.1%. On an annual basis, core PCE inflation held unchanged from the prior month at 2.6% in June.

Russia's MOEX stock index fell to around the 3000 threshold, approaching one-year lows, as the Bank of Russia decided to hike its benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points to 18% in July 2024, aligning with signals from its June meeting and financial market expectations. Policymakers also indicated the possibility of further rate hikes if necessary to control inflation, which is projected to end 2024 within the 6.5%-7% range before decreasing toward 4% in late 2025. On the corporate front, Gazprom's shares saw a slight rebound, moving away from near five-year lows last month, supported by a 30% year-on-year increase in revenues in the first half of the year.

Foreign exchange reserves held by the Reserve Bank of India surged to an equivalent of $670.9 billion as of July 19th to reach another record high. The elevated levels were owed to the robust influx of foreign exchange into the Indian economy, as strong growth and the long-awaited inclusion of Indian assets to JPMorgan’s key emerging market debt index supported foreign investment. This was reflected by the Sensex reaching record highs and the yield on the 10-year G-Sec remaining near the 7% threshold. Additionally, weakness in the yuan, yen, and the won drove the RBI to prioritize the competitiveness of Indian exports and limited intervention through foreign currency selling from the central bank, propping up its reserves.