US Inflation Rises Above 4% and Adds to Fed Rate Hike Bets – PCE.The US personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 4.1% y/y in May from unrevised 3.8% previous month, in line with expectations.

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change registered at 76B above expectations (67B) in June 19.United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change registered at 76B above expectations (67B) in June 19

Canadian Dollar recovers as Oil prices rebound, US Dollar eases after PCE data.Canadian Dollar recovers as Oil prices rebound, US Dollar eases after PCE data

Crude Oil Price Analysis – Crude Oil Filling the War Gap.Crude oil markets are testing major support.

US Dollar: Rally extends as Fed repricing dominates – ABN AMRO.US Dollar: Rally extends as Fed repricing dominates – ABN AMRO

US: Personal Income and Spending Both Perk Up in May.Following a flat reading in April, personal income rebounded by 0.7% month-over-month (m/m) in May, ahead of market expectations for a 0.4% gain. The gain was driven by a firming in wages and salaries, and an increase in farm proprietors' income, reflecting an increase in payments from the American Relief Act of 2025.

The Euro: After the Sunset Comes the Dawn.The US dollar is on track to close the month with its biggest gain since July last year, thanks to the Fed's hawkish shift, gloomy European PMI figures and Christine Lagarde's dovish comments. As a result, the yield spread between US and German bonds is widening, triggering capital outflows and contributing to the fall in EURUSD over 5 of the last 6 trading days.

Risk Rebound Fails to Shake Dollar's Grip on Markets.Global forex markets turned notably quieter on Thursday as major currency pairs and crosses consolidated within Wednesday's ranges. The pause came despite a sharp improvement in risk sentiment after Micron delivered blockbuster quarterly earnings, easing concerns that this week's technology selloff had marked the beginning of a broader unwind in the AI trade.

Natural Gas Price Analysis – Natural Gas Continues to Stay in Range.Natural gas continues to hang around the 200-Day EMA on Thursday, as we are stuck in a range. Storage numbers could be a mover, but would take a shock.

Pound under pressure as UK leadership change clouds market outlook.The British pound was on track for its worst monthly performance against the dollar since July 2025 on Thursday, as fading interest rate support and renewed political uncertainty weighed on sterling. The decline comes in a week that marked the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote and followed the resignation of Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer, adding a fresh layer of uncertainty for investors already reassessing the outlook for UK monetary policy.

Brazil's central bank sees 2028 inflation close to target despite near-term pressures.Brazil's central bank on Thursday published updated inflation forecasts showing price increases near target by the end ​of 2028, even as projections worsened significantly through 2027 amid expectations ‌for resilient economic activity.

Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $743.8B vs $729.3B.Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $743.8B vs $729.3B

US Core PCE Rises to 3.4%, Income and Spending Top Expectations.The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge accelerated in May as both consumer spending and personal income exceeded expectations, reinforcing the picture of a resilient US economy facing persistent price pressures. Personal income rose 0.7% mom, well above the expected 0.4% increase after being flat in April, while personal spending also advanced 0.7% mom, topping forecasts of 0.6% and accelerating from April's 0.4% gain.

US Durable Goods Orders Hit by Transportation, Underlying Demand Improves.US durable goods orders fell -4.5% mom in May, a smaller decline than the expected -4.7% drop, as a sharp pullback in transportation equipment orders offset continued strength elsewhere in the manufacturing sector. The decline followed April's 8.5% surge and was driven by a -14.0% fall in transportation equipment orders to USD 113.5B.

Dollar hits 13-month highs as investors bank on rate hikes.The US dollar is on a remarkable rise, approaching its most significant monthly increase in a year, fueled by expectations of upcoming rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. This surge has propelled the euro to a 13-month low and pushed the pound and yen down to seven-month and 40-year lows, respectively.

US Jobless Claims Fall to 215K, Labor Market Remains Resilient.US initial jobless claims fell more than expected last week, offering fresh evidence that layoffs remain limited despite signs of a gradual cooling in the labor market. Initial claims dropped by -12k to 215k in the week ended June 20, beating expectations of 225k.

US GDP final Q1 2.1% versus 1.6% estimate.Prior estimate 1.6%. Prior quarter 0.5% GDP Final Q1 2.1% vs 1.6% estimate and 1.6% prior estimate GDP sales final 1.9% vs 1.5% estimate and 1.5% prior estimate GDP consumer spending final 0.5% versus 1.4% prior estimate GDP Deflator 3.6% vs 3.5% est.

US initial jobless claims 215K vs 225K estimate. Continuing claims 1.821M vs 1.800M est.For background, the weekly US jobless claims reports are released by the United States Department of Labor every Thursday morning and are one of the fastest indicators of labor market conditions in the United States. The report includes two key measures: Initial Claims and Continuing Claims.

US May durable goods orders -4.5% vs -4.5% expected.For background, the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, published monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau, is one of the most closely watched gauges of U.S. manufacturing activity and business investment. Released about 18 working days after each reference month at 8:30 a.m.

Indian Rupee: Curve drivers shift with structural inflows – DBS.Indian Rupee: Curve drivers shift with structural inflows – DBS

Mexico Jobless Rate above forecasts (2.6%) in May: Actual (2.8%).Mexico Jobless Rate above forecasts (2.6%) in May: Actual (2.8%)

US Secretary of State Rubio: Reiterates criticism against Iran's toll plans near Hormuz.US Secretary of State Rubio: Reiterates criticism against Iran's toll plans near Hormuz

New Zealand Dollar slides for a seventh straight day as markets await US PCE data.New Zealand Dollar slides for a seventh straight day as markets await US PCE data

US Dollar: Stronger levels hinge on Fed path – MUFG.US Dollar: Stronger levels hinge on Fed path – MUFG

Brent: Hormuz reopening pressures prices lower – Commerzbank.Brent: Hormuz reopening pressures prices lower – Commerzbank

Oman reaffirms that future arrangements for Strait of Hormuz do not involve tolls.For now, markets are taking in the calm and it will need some time in gauging the supposed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As things stand, the situation remains that the waterway is tightly controlled by Iran, as reported earlier here.

Brent Oil Falls to Pre-War Levels as Supply Normalization Provides Relief.Brent oil price hit pre-war levels (last traded on February 27) in early Thursday's trading, as re-opening of Hormuz strait (20 million barrels passed through only yesterday) provides strong relief and continues to deflate oil prices.

Crude Oil –25.06.2026.Crude Oil managed to erase all war-time gains to closing towards the 68.00 zone. As we see over the chart, the market could find support around 67.00-68.00, which could cause a rebound that could lead towards the 79.20 resistance.

USD/JPY –25.06.2026.USDJPY in the short term is still facing a resistance zone around 160.90-161.95 as the last time the market reached it, the Bank of Japan warned about possible intervention to support the yen. Traders should take Precautionary measures as the Bank Of Japan could intervene any time in the market.

Australian Dollar languishes around 0.6900 with US inflation data in the spotlight.Australian Dollar languishes around 0.6900 with US inflation data in the spotlight