US Dollar: Fed shift and AI-driven risk backdrop – MUFG.US Dollar: Fed shift and AI-driven risk backdrop – MUFG

BoE's Taylor sees less risk of inflation persistence than in 2022.Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor said on Thursday he saw less risk of so-called second-round inflation effects ​from rising energy prices caused by the Iran war ‌than from Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Crude Oil Price Analysis – Oil Continues to See Range Form.Crude oil rallies slightly in the early part of the session on Thursday, as the back and forth is a feature of this market, not a “bug.”

Oil “Red Zone” Warning Caps Market Recovery as Iran Signals Stay Conflicting.Forex markets remained trapped within yesterday's ranges as investors struggled to find fresh conviction amid conflicting signals surrounding the US-Iran conflict. While there was some brief improvement in risk sentiment after US President Donald Trump said Washington was in the “final stages” of negotiations with Iran, optimism faded quickly as no concrete breakthrough emerged from either side officially.

Sterling holds firm despite sharp drop in UK business activity.The British pound traded largely unchanged against the US dollar on Thursday as investors focused on developments surrounding the Iran war, while also assessing weaker-than-expected surveys of UK business activity. Sterling was flat at $1.3437 against the dollar.

US initial jobless claims fall to 209k, labor market remains resilient.US initial jobless claims edged lower by -3k to 209k in the week ending May 16, slightly below expectations of 210k and consistent with a labor market that remains relatively resilient despite slowing economic momentum elsewhere. Four-week moving average of initial claims also declined by -1.5k to 202.5k, suggesting layoffs remain contained overall.

Japanese Yen: Consolidation below 160 against US Dollar – DBS.Japanese Yen: Consolidation below 160 against US Dollar – DBS

US: Initial Jobless Claims rose to 209K last week.US: Initial Jobless Claims rose to 209K last week

US May Philly Fed business index -0.4 vs +18.0 expected.The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, also known as the Philly Fed Index, is one of the earliest monthly indicators of manufacturing sector health in the United States. Published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, it surveys manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District, covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.

US initial jobless claims 209kvs 210K est. Close to expectations for weekly jobs.The weekly US jobless claims reports are released by the United States Department of Labor every Thursday morning and are one of the fastest indicators of labor market conditions in the United States. The report includes two key measures: Initial Claims and Continuing Claims.

US April housing starts 1.465m vs 1.410m expected.For background, the New Residential Construction report, published jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, is the most widely watched gauge of U.S. homebuilding activity. Released monthly at 8:30 a.m.

investingLive European markets wrap: Risk retreats as Iran defends nuclear position.The session started off with a more tepid mood as US-Iran talks continue to be the main draw. But with the release of euro area and UK PMI data, the focus was split a little amid a rather set of dismal readings from the region.

Sterling steady but weak business activity data weighs.The pound was steady against the dollar on Thursday as broader currency markets focused on developments in the Iran war, while traders ​digested some worse-than-expected surveys of British business activity.

USDJPY, Gold Forecast: DXY, Bond Yields and Geopolitics Drive Key Breakout Tests.The US Dollar Index and precious metals are testing critical breakout levels that could either cap gains or define the next major directional move, as US-Iran sentiment reflects early signs of flow resumption across the Strait of Hormuz.

Fed Calmed the Markets Down.The US dollar retreated as the odds of a year-end rate hike slipped from 57% to 52%, which was reflected in lower Treasury yields. Separately, equities were buoyed by NVIDIA's first-quarter results and the SpaceX IPO filing.

WTI Crude Tests a Critical Barrier as Middle East Risks Intensify.WTI crude oil is testing a major technical resistance zone as markets react to fragile Strait of Hormuz developments, shifting supply expectations, and renewed geopolitical risk across global energy markets. Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst, explains the critical levels traders are watching, why crude oil could either break sharply higher or reverse lower, and how oil volatility could impact inflation, bond yields, central bank expectations, and broader risk sentiment.

IEA Chief Birol: Oil markets could enter red zone in July-August.IEA Chief Birol: Oil markets could enter red zone in July-August

Flash PMIs Show War's Impact.There have been no further developments to fuel optimism about the Strait of Hormuz. Polymarket shows little change in the assessment that there is around a 35% chance that the Strait is open by the end of next month and 47% chance opens by the end of July.

Rupee shored up by firm central bank intervention, but oil risks linger.The Indian rupee strengthened on Thursday, marking its first gain in two weeks, following aggressive intervention by the central bank through dollar sales. A media report suggesting potential policy options, including an interest rate hike, also supported the currency's recovery from recent record lows.

UK industrial orders for May fall at quickest pace since 2020 on higher cost pressures.The CBI monthly manufacturing order book balance for May dropped to -41, following the -38 reading in April. That marks the lowest such estimate since September 2020 amid surging cost pressures.

US Dollar: Swaplines and energy statecraft reshape usage – Rabobank.US Dollar: Swaplines and energy statecraft reshape usage – Rabobank

US Dollar: Inflation expectations support USD and Treasuries – BNY.US Dollar: Inflation expectations support USD and Treasuries – BNY

Brent: Market reacts to Iran headlines – ING.Brent: Market reacts to Iran headlines – ING

Crude Oil –21.05.2026.Crude Oil managed to pass above the resistance of 96.90 which could push for an advance towards the target of 106.00-108.35. Prices are facing support around 93.90 where as long as the market holds above it, more advance will be expected.

Germany's fiscal situation is a case of geopolitical irony.Germany's finance ministry just reported a €41 billion federal budget deficit at the end of April earlier today. For a country that has long been the "frugal superpower" of Europe, the deficit number is quite the red flag for something at this stage of the year.

USD/JPY –21.05.2026.As we see over the previous chart, the pair managed to rebound from support 155.00-60 whilst closing to the resistance at 159.40. USDJPY still has the chance for a further advance as this zone could control the market movement between support 155.00 and resistance 160.20-60.

Asia's currencies are flashing oil shock alarm.Asia's policymakers are taking increasingly urgent and unusual steps to shore up their economies on the front line of the global energy supply shock, with currencies falling to ​record lows and pressure already forcing up interest rates.

French business activity hits lowest level in more than five years as Oil shock widens.French business activity hits lowest level in more than five years as Oil shock widens

UK PMI Composite Falls Into Contraction as BoE Faces “Major Quandary”.UK business activity deteriorated sharply in May as the economy was hit by a combination of Middle East-related energy pressures and rising domestic political uncertainty. Flash UK Composite PMI Output Index plunged from 52.6 to 48.5, its lowest level in 13 months and firmly back into contraction territory.

United Kingdom flash Services PMI unexpectedly declines to 47.9 in May.United Kingdom flash Services PMI unexpectedly declines to 47.9 in May