Oil News: Price Trapped Between 50-Day and 200-Day MAs Signals Volatile Setup.Crude oil slides below 50-day MA, finding support at 200-day. Traders eye geopolitical tension and tariff risks as key price levels hold.

US durable goods fall -2.8% mom, but core orders show resilience.U.S. durable goods orders fell -2.8% mom to USD 302.8B in July, marking the third decline in four months but performing better than forecasts of -4.0% mom. Transportation equipment, also down in three of the past four months, was the main drag, plunging -9.7% mom to USD 101.7B.

Former Fed Governor Brainard: Trump moves risk higher inflation, long-term rates.Brainard is right. Trump should stop with his attacks on the Fed because the central bank independence is extremely important for the markets and the economy.

The National Bank of Hungary held its key interest rate unchanged at 6.50% for the eleventh consecutive meeting on August 26, in line with market expectations. The overnight deposit and collateralized loan rates also stayed at 5.5% and 7.5%, respectively. According to preliminary estimates, annual GDP edged up 0.1% in Q2 2025, reflecting the economy’s sluggish growth. Headline inflation slowed to 4.3% in July, remaining above the central bank’s 4% tolerance threshold and well above the 3% target. Given the persistent inflationary pressures amid a weakening growth outlook, the National Bank of Hungary is likely to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy in the near term.

Oil prices rise due to dwindling hopes for peace in Ukraine – Commerzbank.Oil prices rose last week and also started the new trading week on a bullish note. Brent rose to $69 per barrel and WTI to $65 per barrel.

investingLive European FX news wrap: Lack of catalysts keeps markets rangebound.It's been a very boring session with no data or important news releases. Understandably, the price action has been rangebound throughout the session as markets await US labour market data to influence interest rates expectations.

Australian CPI Expected to Jump, Aussie Steady.The markets are bracing for an acceleration in Australian CPI on Wednesday. The market estimate stands at 2.3% y/y, compared to 1.9% on June which was the lowest level in over three years.

Morning Bid: Nerves jangled by Fed 'firing'  .What matters in U.S. and global markets today

India's BSE Sensex extended early losses to close about 1% lower at 80,786.5 on Tuesday, its lowest in over a week, reversing yesterday's advance. A broad sell-off, led by pharma, metal, and financial stocks, followed the US government's confirmation of tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods starting Wednesday. There is no indication that the US and India are currently engaged in active trade talks. The Trump administration stated it imposed a 50% tariff on India as a means to pressure Russia to end its war in Ukraine and return to negotiations. Moreover, foreign investors have been steadily selling Indian stocks, as other emerging markets offer better opportunities at the moment. Meanwhile, market sentiment was tempered by optimism around proposed GST reforms and expectations of robust Q2 GDP growth. Among equities, Sun Pharma (-3.4%), Tata Steel (-2.9%), Trent (-2.5%) and Bajaj Finance (-2.8%) were among the top drags, while HUL, Maruti Suzuki, ITC and TCS stood out as key performers.

Consumer prices in Bahrain fell by 0.9% year-on-year in July 2025, following a 0.4% decline in June. This marked the fourth consecutive month of deflation, driven primarily by a sharper drop in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, which fell 6.2% compared with a 3.6% decline in June. Additional downward pressure came from continued deflation in housing and utilities (-2% vs -1.5%) as well as clothing and footwear (-5% vs -1.7%). Conversely, inflation accelerated for transport (1.8% vs 1%), health (5.4% vs 5.1%), and recreational and cultural services (1.8% vs 0.7%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.4%, reversing a 0.9% gain in June, which had been the steepest monthly increase since June 2023.

In Mumbai, the SENSEX Index fell 849 points or 1.04 percent on Tuesday. Leading the losses are Sun Pharmaceuticals (-3.36%), Tata Steel (-2.87%) and Bajaj Finance (-2.75%).

Impending Trump tariff hike pushes rupee down for 5th straight session.The Indian rupee continued its losing streak for a fifth consecutive session on Tuesday as Washington confirmed it will impose an extra 25% levy on Indian goods, clouding the outlook for Asia's third-largest economy.

USD/JPY expected to trade in a range between 146.70 and 148.00 – UOB Group.US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a range between 146.70 and 148.00. In the longer run, outlook is mixed; USD could trade in a range between 146.40 and 148.40, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Rubber futures rose above 172 US cents per kilogram, reaching their highest level since late July, driven by supply concerns caused by heavy rains disrupting Asian production. Top producer Thailand is preparing for even heavier rainfall and potential flash floods through late August, compounded by leaf drop disease. Meanwhile, Indonesia faces declining output due to labor shortages and a shift toward oil palm cultivation, while Vietnam struggles with aging plantations and adverse weather conditions. Strong winds and heavy rain from Typhoon Kajiki have battered Vietnam and China’s Hainan province. However, further gains were limited by lower oil prices and ongoing concerns over weak global tyre demand, as well as overcapacity and high inventory levels in China.

Dollar Index (DXY) Elliott Wave Outlook: Bearish Impulse Aims for 97.3.The Dollar Index (DXY) displays a bearish sequence with lower lows since its August 1, 2025 peak, signaling further downside. The decline from this high unfolds as a five-wave impulsive Elliott Wave structure.

The South African rand was around 17.6 per USD, down from an over nine-month high of 17.4 hit on August 22, as investors continued to take profits after the recent rally. Further losses were limited by rising gold prices and a weaker dollar, which came under pressure due to concerns over the Fed’s independence and expectations of upcoming interest rate cuts. Lower interest rates in the US would narrow the yield differential with South Africa, boosting investor confidence and supporting the rand. Domestically, recent data showed inflation accelerated in line with expectations to a 10-month high of 3.5% in July, remaining within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range. However, the outlook remains uncertain amid a potential revision of South Africa’s inflation target and the risks associated with US tariffs and other global uncertainties.

Imports to Hong Kong rose 16.5% year-on-year to $480.4 billion in July 2025, accelerating from an 11.1% gain in June. Imports rose notably from Vietnam (+129.3%), Thailand (+33.1%), Singapore (+28.7%), the United Kingdom (+24.8%), Japan (+22.3%) and the mainland of China (+16.3%), while imports from the US (-8.8%) declined. By product category, imports rose across most sectors, led by electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, and electrical parts thereof (21.9% vs 14.6% in June), telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing equipment (49.8% vs 17.7%), office machines and automatic data processing machines (0.7% vs 9.8%), miscellaneous manufactured articles (12.4% vs 12.6%), power-generating machinery and equipment (29.1% vs 38.7%), and non-metallic mineral manufactures (7.1% vs -15.6%). In contrast, imports declined in professional, scientific and controlling instruments and apparatus (-11.9% vs -9.4%), and petroleum and related products (-3.4% vs -10.5%).

Trump's latest Fed jab breeds more dismay than drama.Global investors were shell-shocked on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump struck another blow at the Federal Reserve's independence, caught between the concerns over politicisation of policy and the payoffs for markets.

USD/JPY Under Pressure as Yen Pares Losses.The USD/JPY pair declined on Tuesday, touching 147.70. The move marks a partial recovery for the yen, enabling it to recoup some of its recent losses.

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Falls to near 171.50 as bearish bias emerges.EUR/JPY extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 171.50 during the European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the emergence of a bearish market bias as the currency cross is remaining slightly below the ascending channel pattern.

Palladium futures fell to below $1,070 per ounce, the lowest in two months, as changing automotive trends and steady supply weigh on the market. Demand from traditional internal combustion engines, which account for roughly 80–84% of palladium consumption, is declining due to rising electric vehicle adoption and increased substitution of cheaper platinum in catalytic converters. Global EV sales rose 21% year-on-year in July, with China averaging 36% monthly growth in the first half of the year, though some 2025 subsidy pauses have slowed momentum. On the supply side, output from Russia and South Africa remains stable, easing shortage concerns. The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a market shift from a multiyear deficit to a surplus of about 200,000 ounces in 2025, as automotive demand contracts while mine and recycled supply continue steadily.

Exports from Hong Kong rose by 14.3% year-on-year to $446.3 billion in July, accelerating from an 1.9% gain in June. Exports to Asian markets climbed by 19.3%, with particularly strong growth in Taiwan (+91.9%), Malaysia (+80.7%), Singapore (+42.5%), Vietnam (+42.1%), the Philippines (+16.5%) and the mainland of China (+16.1%). In contrast, shipments to non-Asian destinations weakened, notably to the US (-7.6%) and the Netherlands (-42.1%). By product category, exports rose across most sectors, led by electrical machinery and apparatus (22.8% vs 20.2% in June), telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing equipment (32.0% vs 2.6%), power generating machinery and equipment (29.9% vs 19.3%), and non-ferrous metals (47.8% vs 80.8%). In contrast, exports fell in office and automatic data processing machines (-4.4% vs 10.4%), miscellaneous manufactured articles (-5.7% vs 8.9%), scientific and precision instruments (-0.8% vs -9.2%) and non-metallic mineral goods (-18.1% vs -8.3%).

Brent crude oil futures fell more than 1% to $68 per barrel on Tuesday after hitting a nearly three-week high in the prior session, with traders closely monitoring developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Monday’s rally was fueled by concerns of supply disruptions after Ukraine launched drone strikes on Russian power and energy facilities on Sunday, while US President Donald Trump also warned that further sanctions against Moscow could be imposed if no progress is made toward a peace deal within the next two weeks. Traders are also watching the impact of an additional 25% tariff on India over its purchases of Russian oil, set to take effect on Wednesday. On the demand side, expectations of looser US monetary policy offered support, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday signaled a possible rate cut in September, which could boost economic growth and energy demand. Elsewhere, attention is also on the API’s weekly crude oil stock data, due later today.

European natural gas futures fell more than 1% to €33.5/MWh, snapping a four-day rally, as traders weighed Norwegian maintenance and geopolitical risks. Planned work at several facilities will cut flows, though curbs at the key Troll field should be milder than feared. Europe is racing to build inventories before winter, with storage levels at 75.5% (vs 91% last year), Germany at 68.6%, Italy at 87.4% and France at 83.8%. Markets remain on edge over the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as Kyiv struck Russian energy sites and the US signaled more sanctions on Moscow. President Trump has threatened tougher measures within two weeks if peace talks stall.

Palladium decreased to 1074.00 USD/t.oz, the lowest since June 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Palladium lost 17.06%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 12.1%.

Hong Kong’s trade deficit widened to $34.1 billion in July 2025 from $21.9 billion in the same month last year. Exports rose 14.3% year-on-year to $446.3 billion, driven by strong growth in sales of electrical machinery and equipment (22.8%), and telecommunications and audio equipment (32.0%). Exports to Asia as a whole surged 19.3%, while shipments to non-Asian markets declined, particularly to the US (-7.6%) and the Netherlands (-42.1%). Meanwhile, imports increased 16.5% to $480.4 billion, mainly due to higher purchases of electrical machinery and related parts (21.9%), and telecommunications and audio-visual equipment (49.8%). Imports from most major suppliers recorded strong growth, led by Vietnam (+129.3%), Thailand (+33.1%), Singapore (+28.7%), and the UK (+24.8%). For the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative trade deficit reached $218.6 billion, with exports up 12.7% and imports up 13.2% compared to the same period last year.

France’s 10-year bond yield inched up to near 3.52%, a fresh high since mid-March, underperforming other European peers, as investors weighed growing political uncertainty in the country. Prime Minister François Bayrou scheduled a parliamentary vote on September 8 for his government’s budget cuts, but the main opposition parties have declared they will not support him in the forthcoming confidence vote. The €44 billion austerity plan proposed by the Prime Minister combines major spending cuts with tax hikes—measures he says are critical to stabilizing France’s deteriorating public finances. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Eric Lombard suggested there was a risk the International Monetary Fund would have to intervene in the economy if Bayrou's minority government collapses. The market's attention was also on further Trump's tariff threats, monetary policy signals and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

The Hang Seng dipped 305 points or 1.2% to close at 25,525 on Tuesday, swinging from a two-day winning streak amid broad-based declines. Sentiment soured after U.S. futures dropped sharply, following President Trump’s removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook and threats of “200% tariffs” on China if rare-earth magnet exports are restricted. Trump also vowed retaliation against countries regulating U.S. Big Tech. The index pulled back from a near four-year high, as concerns grew that mainland stocks may be losing steam after a months-long rally that lifted the Shanghai Composite to a decade high. Still, further downside was cushioned by several factors, including AI optimism, attractive market valuations across China and Hong Kong, Beijing’s ongoing policy support, and abundant liquidity due to low bank returns. Haidilao sank 2.8% after H1 earnings missed estimates, while Innovent Biologics (-4.1%), China Unicom (-3.6%), SMIC (-3.3%), and Dongfeng Motor (-1.7%) also posted steep losses.

Industrial production in Taiwan rose by 18.11% year-on-year in July, slowing from a downwardly revised 18.32% gain in the previous month. Output growth slowed for manufacturing (19.55% vs 19.87% in June). Additionally, production declined further for mining and quarrying (-15.66% vs -8.56%). Meanwhile, output contracted at a softer pace for electricity and gas supply (-7.70% vs -9.81%), while it recovered for water supply (0.91% vs -0.73%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial activity fell by 1.40% in July, easing from an upwardly revised 4.19% drop in the preceding period.

Retail sales in Taiwan fell by 3.6% year-on-year in July 2025, declining further from a 2.9% drop in the previous month. This marked the fourth consecutive month of falling retail activity and the sharpest contraction in the sequence, as sales continued to decrease for fuel and related products (-8.7% vs -6.9% in June) and motor vehicles, motorcycles, and related parts and accessories (-19.7% vs -17.3%). In addition, trade tumbled for information and communication equipment and electrical household appliances (-4.3% vs 2.6%), while it moderated for construction materials (3.5% vs 4.5%), electronic shopping and mail-order houses (7.3% vs 8.9%), and other retail sales (5.8% vs 6.8%). Meanwhile, sales accelerated for food, beverages, and tobacco (9.8% vs 7.7%) and retail trade not in stores or stalls (5.4% vs 4.9%). On a monthly basis, retail activity fell by 0.4% in July 2025, easing from a 1.5% drop in the previous month.